Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 10-14 times Nov 15-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2508be0f13142e07addaa5d1e8fd319fde2c034c9e0658548c6bc9781980201f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,592$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.01 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 29c | 1,237$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.34 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 77c | 1,200$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.97 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 39c | 1,090$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…46ffbacked Yes | 53c | 962.61$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…c1cfbacked Yes | 24c | 950.41$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…d2cfbacked Yes | 33c | 856.22$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.82 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 674.66$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.73 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 23c | 672.43$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.81 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 26c | 598.15$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.74 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 6c | 565.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 14c | 419.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ceb…4790backed Yes | 28c | 407.42$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.15 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 19c | 322.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…f6c4backed Yes | 67c | 299.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c2…01f7backed Yes | 32c | 283.33$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…c0e4backed Yes | 20c | 281.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1215backed Yes | 18c | 278.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8505…79f2backed Yes | 20c | 278.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +189.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…84fcbacked Yes | 15c | 277.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa2…0cacbacked Yes | 40c | 272.96$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e1…f770backed Yes | 34c | 207.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 19c | 190.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…9f7ebacked Yes | 16c | 183.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 22c | 152.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…2adfbacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed No | 75c | 148.6$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 10c | 147.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.04 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 49c | 145.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 23c | 122.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 73c | 119.57$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 115.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 31c | 110.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.58 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 24c | 109.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 17c | 104.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…2612backed Yes | 20c | 99.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa061…06dfbacked Yes | 16c | 92.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4b…6825backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…84edbacked Yes | 19c | 87.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 29c | 80.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 79c | 73.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9e42backed Yes | 50c | 67.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1958…a85cbacked Yes | 30c | 66.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 16c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 21c | 60.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 33c | 59.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…8cedbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 25c | 40.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…9a73backed Yes | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707c…21bbbacked Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Yes | 50c | 27.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times Nov 15-22?this page
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-34 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 35-39 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50-59 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 60 or more times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet less than 10 times Nov 15-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.