Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet less than 10 times Nov 15-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd588cb2773955f195cb3fdaf50dfaf18fe8a188782edb4e64e46a76968a6d450
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcba3…6055backed No | 33c | 5,567$1,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,827.16 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…d2cfbacked Yes | 58c | 4,302$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 67c | 3,874$2,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.75 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 11c | 2,153$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.32 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…2da2backed Yes | 79c | 2,008$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 39c | 1,616$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.54 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 30c | 1,482$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.41 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 72c | 1,479$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.03 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 22c | 1,439$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.68 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 14c | 1,415$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.06 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9711…3fa1backed Yes | 62c | 1,103$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 12c | 1,042$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.09 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…63b0backed Yes | 17c | 1,032$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 26c | 926.55$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…46ffbacked Yes | 59c | 860$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 812.15$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.3 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…9f7ebacked Yes | 15c | 761.36$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.01 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 69c | 749.69$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.46 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ab…25dfbacked Yes | 24c | 734.64$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +323.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…3f6abacked Yes | 7c | 715.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.24 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…4007backed Yes | 57c | 702.77$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.2 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed No | 35c | 679.32$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.75 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ceb…4790backed Yes | 36c | 625.66$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.26 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5678…5ffabacked No | 29c | 624.95$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 33c | 600$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 10c | 599.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.99 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 50c | 598.15$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.98 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed Yes | 15c | 595.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e1…f770backed Yes | 45c | 533.44$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab64…d070backed Yes | 29c | 420.19$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +572.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…d31dbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 26c | 412.28$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.26 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 61c | 398.88$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.64 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 27c | 384$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…44d9backed Yes | 46c | 359.86$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…9360backed No | 37c | 314.27$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…11edbacked Yes | 16c | 312.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…c0e4backed Yes | 40c | 273.04$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8167…3051backed Yes | 38c | 259.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +159.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa2…0cacbacked Yes | 20c | 254.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed No | 32c | 250$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…38dfbacked Yes | 21c | 242.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked Yes | 31c | 241.78$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.28 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 35c | 239.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.76 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…1971backed No | 79c | 236.03$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.31 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe464…25ecbacked Yes | 22c | 224.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +845.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed No | 80c | 222.68$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b43…ffa3backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6d…896fbacked Yes | 52c | 190.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed No | 55c | 184.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1215backed Yes | 64c | 168.37$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x190e…6bf6backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 22c | 135.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.68 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 68c | 135.6$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 62c | 134.89$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8505…79f2backed Yes | 12c | 134.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +189.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe5…66c2backed Yes | 24c | 119.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 17c | 118.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.33 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 61c | 115.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…1f84backed Yes | 31c | 112.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce4b…6825backed Yes | 51c | 100.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…0465backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…1d74backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…d3eebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed No | 46c | 94.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24c2…01f7backed Yes | 55c | 91.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 49c | 87.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb748…69f7backed Yes | 68c | 83.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397f…54e9backed Yes | 47c | 79.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…9428backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…74fdbacked Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 37c | 64.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…6ff0backed No | 77c | 61.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4092…1920backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…84edbacked No | 40c | 55.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…f951backed Yes | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…5688backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…2114backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…b1d4backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 54cpaid | +96%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9949…3f3bbacked No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…aa40backed Yes | 70c | 48.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…d4c3backed Yes | 55c | 43.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac37…55eabacked Yes | 63c | 42.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 28c | 42.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d7…50fabacked No | 66c | 38.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…a71dbacked Yes | 70c | 37.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d4…4c1cbacked Yes | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93de…bd2bbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13dc…e4d8backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd74…5e2fbacked Yes | 74c | 30.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…0f49backed Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Yes | 50c | 25.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c63…a888backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340e…735abacked Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…b472backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet less than 10 times Nov 15-22?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-34 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 35-39 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50-59 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 60 or more times Nov 15-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.