Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 15-19 times Nov 15-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa70378611876c406690f09c2f699ef0588fec5ceda6791ea3c0769c727233e90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcba3…6055backed Yes | 5c | 1,135$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 9c | 1,077$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.55 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 7c | 965.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 861.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.29 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 8c | 598.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 11c | 568.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe464…25ecbacked Yes | 18c | 567.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +845.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…5377backed Yes | 17c | 552.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 10c | 484.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 25c | 477.62$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 389.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…63b0backed Yes | 9c | 376.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…3f6abacked Yes | 10c | 346.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8183backed Yes | 16c | 310.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…c0e4backed Yes | 15c | 276.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e1…f770backed Yes | 12c | 248.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 15c | 225.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 10c | 216.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 13c | 188.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed Yes | 11c | 167.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ceb…4790backed Yes | 15c | 145$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 15c | 112.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8505…79f2backed Yes | 11c | 112.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +189.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 9c | 109.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…3a51backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 13c | 86.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 61c | 28.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 73c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times Nov 15-22?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-34 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 35-39 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50-59 times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet 60 or more times Nov 15-22?No won
- Will Trump tweet less than 10 times Nov 15-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.