Ukraine · resolved market
Will Ukraine join NATO in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb36d9c4fb1fac427ee93c27730c7c2b88c8e6000c7ff693bbcab68458b658f6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,220,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,864,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,220,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7120…af58backed Yes | 1c | 76,258$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd32a…fa5cbacked Yes | 1c | 42,728$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 4c | 36,117$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.21 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb118…aaffbacked Yes | 1c | 31,368$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 25,538$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.4 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…f3ddbacked Yes | 2c | 24,384$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 23,000$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 65 | 1.5%1 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…ade9backed Yes | 1c | 20,877$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadc1…35dcbacked Yes | 1c | 20,877$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7110…f198backed Yes | 1c | 17,380$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa03a…d68abacked Yes | 1c | 17,380$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…3639backed Yes | 1c | 13,779$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa8…a404backed Yes | 1c | 13,779$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 1c | 13,075$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d79…eea4backed Yes | 1c | 12,314$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 0c | 11,554$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 0c | 11,156$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 3c | 10,700$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1e…f8e6backed Yes | 1c | 10,491$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…000cbacked Yes | 1c | 10,491$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602a…e2fbbacked Yes | 1c | 10,491$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0600…0428backed Yes | 1c | 10,491$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf61…8fb8backed Yes | 1c | 10,491$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d4…f46abacked Yes | 0c | 10,422$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 2c | 10,222$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…bfc5backed Yes | 5c | 10,082$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 1c | 9,059$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa609…a3d9backed Yes | 1c | 8,882$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 2c | 8,016$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb228…2734backed Yes | 2c | 7,461$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 7,232$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.91 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 2c | 7,044$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.99 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fe…c5f6backed Yes | 1c | 6,994$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ac…8ae4backed Yes | 1c | 6,994$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 0c | 6,951$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +85%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,619$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 5,997$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 5c | 5,293$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes | 0c | 5,023$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9dffbacked Yes | 9c | 4,914$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…0a24backed Yes | 6c | 4,731$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes | 0c | 4,219$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,932$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 3c | 3,786$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a3…3940backed Yes | 1c | 3,716$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 5c | 3,674$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.46 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2a…6969backed Yes | 0c | 3,576$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0e…b906backed Yes | 1c | 3,331$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0329…8129backed Yes | 1c | 3,300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d3…0e28backed Yes | 1c | 3,184$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,129$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf83…3dacbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…726bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,888$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d45…73bcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,864$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b2…4e48backed Yes | 1c | 2,848$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…64b4backed Yes | 1c | 2,444$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…0f38backed Yes | 3c | 2,357$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +163.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe538…bdd1backed Yes | 0c | 2,188$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…dafcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,087$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c88…c405backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 3c | 1,978$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a4…5d27backed Yes | 3c | 1,852$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…f6fbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,671$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50da…6bdcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,664$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…73e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,645$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b0…bae3backed Yes | 1c | 1,490$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…0e46backed Yes | 2c | 1,377$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…c3eebacked Yes | 1c | 1,257$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c23…6e68backed Yes | 3c | 1,234$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…96e0backed Yes | 1c | 1,198$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68bc…41d2backed Yes | 2c | 1,060$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,025$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd593…4a94backed Yes | 2c | 985.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…0becbacked Yes | 1c | 965.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0db2backed Yes | 2c | 879.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc64f…3577backed Yes | 3c | 840.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0271…57e5backed Yes | 2c | 839.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c2…e511backed Yes | 1c | 788.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 3c | 714.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa2…ee39backed Yes | 1c | 706.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…dd8ebacked Yes | 2c | 705.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587a…2eedbacked Yes | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 2c | 684.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f26…1078backed Yes | 2c | 628.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21da…baf5backed Yes | 2c | 447.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…4c12backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…eb52backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.