TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Ukraine join NATO in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,220,103
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,864,688

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,220,103 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7120…af58backed Yes1c76,258$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd32a…fa5cbacked Yes1c42,728$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.3460%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes4c36,117$1,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.211315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-79.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb118…aaffbacked Yes1c31,368$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes3c25,538$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.414121.3%30 W · 111 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf59b…f3ddbacked Yes2c24,384$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c23,000$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118651.5%1 W · 64 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6a…ade9backed Yes1c20,877$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadc1…35dcbacked Yes1c20,877$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7110…f198backed Yes1c17,380$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa03a…d68abacked Yes1c17,380$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0580…3639backed Yes1c13,779$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffa8…a404backed Yes1c13,779$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes1c13,075$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512025%5 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d79…eea4backed Yes1c12,314$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x684b…0601backed Yes0c11,554$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes0c11,156$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.111811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes3c10,700$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.94520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-68.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xce1e…f8e6backed Yes1c10,491$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9a…000cbacked Yes1c10,491$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x602a…e2fbbacked Yes1c10,491$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0600…0428backed Yes1c10,491$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf61…8fb8backed Yes1c10,491$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0d4…f46abacked Yes0c10,422$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes2c10,222$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d57…bfc5backed Yes5c10,082$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes1c9,059$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.99230%0 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa609…a3d9backed Yes1c8,882$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes2c8,016$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb228…2734backed Yes2c7,461$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c7,232$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9139429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes2c7,044$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.995922%13 W · 46 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-61.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5fe…c5f6backed Yes1c6,994$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7ac…8ae4backed Yes1c6,994$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed Yes0c6,951$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.25224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick10cpaid+85%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c6,619$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.37230%0 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes1c5,997$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.89110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Yes5c5,293$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.51931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-45.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes0c5,023$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcec1…9dffbacked Yes9c4,914$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cec…0a24backed Yes6c4,731$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes0c4,219$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9560%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes1c3,932$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.941526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-33.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes3c3,786$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.71922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19a3…3940backed Yes1c3,716$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7789…f823backed Yes5c3,674$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.46100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a2a…6969backed Yes0c3,576$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd0e…b906backed Yes1c3,331$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0329…8129backed Yes1c3,300$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79d3…0e28backed Yes1c3,184$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab60…b46cbacked Yes1c3,129$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-29.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf83…3dacbacked Yes2c3,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6702…726bbacked Yes1c2,888$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d45…73bcbacked Yes1c2,864$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3b2…4e48backed Yes1c2,848$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.03100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5dd3…64b4backed Yes1c2,444$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e2…0f38backed Yes3c2,357$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick5cpaid+163.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe538…bdd1backed Yes0c2,188$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+87.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x90b8…dafcbacked Yes1c2,087$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c88…c405backed Yes3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes3c1,978$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.394139%16 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70a4…5d27backed Yes3c1,852$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34c2…f6fbbacked Yes1c1,671$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-51.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50da…6bdcbacked Yes2c1,664$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf01…73e8backed Yes1c1,645$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0b0…bae3backed Yes1c1,490$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f8…0e46backed Yes2c1,377$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd034…c3eebacked Yes1c1,257$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c23…6e68backed Yes3c1,234$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x600b…96e0backed Yes1c1,198$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68bc…41d2backed Yes2c1,060$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes3c1,025$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.67333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd593…4a94backed Yes2c985.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…0becbacked Yes1c965.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.951414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a08…0db2backed Yes2c879.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc64f…3577backed Yes3c840.11$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0271…57e5backed Yes2c839.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88c2…e511backed Yes1c788.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x760b…26ecbacked Yes3c714.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0aa2…ee39backed Yes1c706.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc6…dd8ebacked Yes2c705.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x587a…2eedbacked Yes7c700$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes2c684.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.392817.9%5 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f26…1078backed Yes2c628.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21da…baf5backed Yes2c447.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.88450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bd0…4c12backed Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c10…eb52backed Yes6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.