Fed Rates · resolved market
Lisa Cook federally charged in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc43da4681dee6ef632a404998d00db86fe62e40938ea25e0b2c958ea1f2acc67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 13c | 7,576$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 11c | 4,942$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.42 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 14c | 2,983$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.54 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 21c | 800$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 796.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 79c | 700$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 80c | 581$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 16c | 565$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.42 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 19c | 497.38$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 80c | 434.99$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 10c | 375.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 18c | 350$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 14c | 350$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 313.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…403dbacked Yes | 22c | 270$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked Yes | 22c | 268.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…ae28backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -77%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…966bbacked Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 200.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…bcf4backed No | 80c | 183.75$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed No | 79c | 176.05$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…6fb0backed Yes | 20c | 163.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 14c | 143.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 79c | 137.41$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe913…4b84backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 73c | 105$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…4d48backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 77c | 39.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…aef7backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 74c | 18.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…8770backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.