Us Politics · resolved market
Kash Patel out by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bb9b3707fa2efb7d1866ff36b9932de2567632e7735ffd170a6a2965bc1f8e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 5c | 28,297$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.94 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 7c | 3,379$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.2 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 4c | 3,003$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.01 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,684$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,613$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 5c | 2,500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…884dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,005$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,543$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 2c | 1,510$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,256$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 2c | 999.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeeab…3516backed Yes | 9c | 852$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6f…d485backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb998…d9b2backed Yes | 9c | 598.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 3c | 595.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca4…3e81backed Yes | 6c | 569.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 6c | 350$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 346.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237c…93ffbacked Yes | 6c | 264.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x853b…eff5backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 8c | 198.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…9adabacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95de…42d5backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.