Us Politics · resolved market
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fd335e81bea2e4a87af5483f43c0abe4b6602ee36bc584a96391d357e6bafa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 6c | 15,750$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.32 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 7,209$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.98 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed9e…0d91backed Yes | 7c | 2,753$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed Yes | 10c | 2,654$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.66 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 21c | 2,490$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.76 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 13c | 2,393$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,323$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 5c | 1,983$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.55 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 6c | 1,830$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.79 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 12c | 1,687$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 5c | 1,527$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…2339backed No | 79c | 1,296$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…d13cbacked No | 80c | 1,205$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.92 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 17c | 1,110$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.06 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 6c | 1,045$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 899.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1b…2c14backed Yes | 3c | 732.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653d…7805backed Yes | 8c | 597.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked Yes | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 443.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 13c | 371.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 4c | 305$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 14c | 298.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 6c | 270$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Yes | 6c | 255.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…f224backed Yes | 4c | 253.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -84%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 10c | 204$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…ca54backed Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked No | 80c | 149.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…e66bbacked Yes | 8c | 137.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41e…9538backed Yes | 16c | 120.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 22c | 108.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16a8…30e5backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14d…48bcbacked Yes | 23c | 87.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478d…5011backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8554…25c9backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.