TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump uses a recess appointment for Cabinet?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$106,009
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,411

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,009 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes2c4,662$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.771216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-76.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x843a…1aa4backed Yes20c4,171$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.473732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes19c3,900$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.953732.4%12 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes18c2,843$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.3212531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a7d…d5ddbacked Yes15c2,839$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.880%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c76…ded5backed Yes16c2,633$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.6185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-91.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes19c2,610$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.9641238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes6c2,532$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.3312619.8%25 W · 101 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52e9…67c3backed Yes22c2,100$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.451435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No69c1,923$1,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.7735519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes18c1,906$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.848843.2%38 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes13c1,853$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.5211541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed No69c1,755$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.552842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab60…b46cbacked Yes19c1,579$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004422.7%10 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes16c1,250$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015433.3%18 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes24c1,128$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.1837533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes13c1,059$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.5923639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes14c1,037$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.122941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes14c1,036$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.036051.7%31 W · 29 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.885234.6%18 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.383721.6%8 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+110.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1750…dce6backed Yes18c999.99$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No66c974.77$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.3937844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed Yes17c886.56$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.275135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No77c856.54$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.652365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes12c750$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907728.6%22 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe182…2b08backed Yes27c740.84$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.75475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+135.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes26c500$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.514241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes27c500$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13415238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6bd4…30a1backed Yes5c500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.961414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-65.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes13c485.66$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7518033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bd1…cf8dbacked Yes5c485$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.33119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-65.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No79c477$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.7111950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab7b…f350backed Yes42c476.61$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002766.7%18 W · 9 L+5.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+43.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb8cb…e434backed Yes27c462.67$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.71241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes19c460$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2910347.6%49 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a6…31b9backed Yes13c449.13$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.162958.6%17 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+30.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcdd6…39b0backed Yes13c445.51$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes9c419.93$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.286432.8%21 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes25c388.24$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-64.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes10c378.39$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9714843.2%64 W · 84 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c5a…3f05backed Yes5c365.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-71.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No76c360$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.079533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ef…3d1ebacked Yes30c334.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-25.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbd6c…68d9backed Yes8c331.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes16c316.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.551,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes11c313.41$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed Yes25c313.22$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7711646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c308.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.396319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ad3…b694backed Yes19c300$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.61936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6867…25b8backed Yes42c300$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508643%37 W · 49 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes11c281.56$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6117713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce3…f779backed Yes17c250$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.51752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38cd…a557backed Yes9c250$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.55147.1%24 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+28.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c4c…3486backed Yes9c244.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.722821.4%6 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-55.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes21c243.25$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.878741.4%36 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ec8…d41dbacked Yes36c214.63$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.31333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0643…7b30backed Yes11c210$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.933545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked No59c206.4$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.67227.8%20 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e7…e9fdbacked Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd592…9ed9backed Yes41c199.99$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x023f…c142backed Yes15c170$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+130.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes31c161.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabe9…09b5backed Yes17c147.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253721.6%8 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee7…043dbacked No77c132$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.15366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-13.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa1d7…6788backed Yes20c126.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-50.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa823…851fbacked Yes26c120$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes42c119.98$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6928636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes18c111.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes10c110$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5118914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes19c101.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.613859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb4e…3f76backed Yes25c100.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes18c100.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2756733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa78…8af1backed Yes18c100.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.07812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-69%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4e2…a960backed No73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05ae…ad71backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb232…8709backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe77e…bb3dbacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a39…ca50backed Yes23c87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick36cpaid+49%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ec2…0cb3backed Yes30c83.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes33c76.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.44323.3%10 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed Yes20c74.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.869829.6%29 W · 69 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Yes23c63.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156634.8%23 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47a5…aa28backed Yes41c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.82536%9 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-33.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xea27…8a0bbacked Yes24c57.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Yes27c55.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156031.7%19 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9385…f169backed Yes23c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd004…6309backed Yes23c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d4…9a1abacked Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6050…80d6backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-54.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ff…7f09backed Yes23c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff3…88dfbacked Yes23c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2826…88b9backed Yes23c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed No77c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.76038.3%23 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dd0…883dbacked Yes23c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d5f…6563backed Yes23c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1150…3f02backed Yes31c49.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No73c45.59$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.315756.1%32 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+35.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c71…14a4backed No73c41.37$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.377753.2%41 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.