Us Politics · resolved market
Obama federally charged in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6eeba1cd2c0beba807664f64acf1e5d413abd66be3192cd390a416f0231ba82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $388,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $455,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $388,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4a2…1a9fbacked Yes | 8c | 18,589$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3c…1bc1backed Yes | 7c | 14,727$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 10,337$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.59 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a1…34f0backed Yes | 5c | 9,574$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x627b…7d19backed Yes | 7c | 7,859$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…1052backed Yes | 7c | 6,783$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…3b83backed Yes | 5c | 6,595$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed Yes | 4c | 5,866$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.18 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 5c | 4,856$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.68 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…5ee2backed Yes | 6c | 4,278$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.82 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 6c | 4,100$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.4 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,715$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.3 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e7…5dd6backed Yes | 6c | 3,574$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…781abacked Yes | 7c | 3,333$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 6c | 3,200$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.9 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…d105backed Yes | 6c | 2,600$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,328$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.36 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 2,170$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,129$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…fd07backed Yes | 7c | 2,047$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.53 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef43…7b62backed Yes | 6c | 2,002$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.11 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 6c | 1,862$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.49 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 5c | 1,800$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c3…3800backed Yes | 5c | 1,747$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,710$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.52 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f0…3bdbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,654$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…0f1fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,539$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +205.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…ced9backed Yes | 6c | 1,428$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,271$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 5c | 1,139$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Yes | 6c | 1,025$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…0d06backed Yes | 7c | 900.65$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b8…c81fbacked Yes | 6c | 876.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes | 6c | 823.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 6c | 770.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fb…26ccbacked Yes | 7c | 754.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 4c | 712.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a63…2eb3backed Yes | 7c | 685.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…a223backed Yes | 6c | 671.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d92…a624backed Yes | 5c | 594$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 7c | 589.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…9d74backed Yes | 2c | 542.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8664…9500backed Yes | 7c | 524.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…1f24backed Yes | 4c | 507.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 4c | 505.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe00…36c2backed Yes | 8c | 501.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d9…7c38backed Yes | 7c | 460.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 6c | 420$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb029…94afbacked Yes | 5c | 416.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6736…058cbacked Yes | 5c | 415.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…7b8abacked Yes | 7c | 409.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe415…db17backed Yes | 7c | 405.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcff8…6b01backed Yes | 7c | 404.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 7c | 400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2b…d2f2backed Yes | 5c | 392.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e5…b7e6backed Yes | 5c | 350$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…7e61backed Yes | 6c | 336.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa2…b94fbacked Yes | 6c | 318.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…d9e3backed Yes | 5c | 306.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +81%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b52…4e9dbacked Yes | 7c | 304.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…7bdfbacked Yes | 7c | 300.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 5c | 297.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec23…bfbabacked Yes | 10c | 261.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…a10dbacked Yes | 7c | 240$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d5…3ba6backed Yes | 8c | 220.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 5c | 220$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b1…0be3backed Yes | 6c | 206.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…cdaebacked Yes | 7c | 200.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e1…e809backed Yes | 6c | 184.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.