Music · resolved market
Will Justin Bieber's album 'SWAG' have over 150k sales in its first week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6cebd4e3e64dd9ca1bdb8de3ccafea4aae83ed7ca639d7e7fa6976fab1701ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed No | 1c | 26,947$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 22c | 2,239$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.65 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 79c | 994.67$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.88 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 16c | 880$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 10c | 652.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 8c | 599.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcd…9368backed No | 21c | 571.85$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 12c | 563.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 537.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d30…6ac3backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 4c | 471.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 7c | 345.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 73c | 344.25$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 15c | 305.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 10c | 237.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…208fbacked Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…712bbacked Yes | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed No | 22c | 129.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -76%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a0…0bf7backed No | 10c | 122$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 13c | 86.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…b901backed Yes | 67c | 82.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +385.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 70c | 68.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 75c | 36.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6fd8backed Yes | 73c | 21.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…5e0fbacked Yes | 61c | 16.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…ff12backed Yes | 76c | 15.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.