Us Politics · resolved market
First round leader wins NYC Democratic primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ae5a07f1bbbc3594d1643fde0a8e73c88ee94dcd02c113be437a4e556799e36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 20c | 5,661$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.41 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ca81backed No | 34c | 2,363$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.43 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 69c | 2,169$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 39c | 2,056$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.87 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 1,400$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed No | 39c | 1,179$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.54 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 69c | 859$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.38 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 4c | 744.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 67c | 683.28$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.69 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…9019backed No | 34c | 600$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 64c | 533$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.76 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 61c | 524.4$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.84 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 76c | 511.58$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.79 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 481.46$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.91 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked No | 37c | 465.67$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 35c | 445$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.54 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 62c | 339.34$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.64 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 23c | 304.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed No | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed No | 33c | 270$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x980f…5b55backed No | 37c | 254.17$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…34b6backed Yes | 67c | 230$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f56…ccdebacked No | 32c | 202$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…793cbacked Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180a…8b0dbacked Yes | 65c | 170$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked No | 35c | 131.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 67c | 127$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 73c | 125$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 39c | 123$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf233…6ab2backed Yes | 68c | 108.82$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 36c | 76.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf11…3cfebacked Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…51a2backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 66c | 62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Yes | 56c | 61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6fd8backed No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…d5bebacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00d9…12dfbacked Yes | 70c | 50.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +159.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x840b…8223backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 40c | 48.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…587bbacked Yes | 66c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…b6fabacked Yes | 73c | 44.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 77c | 23.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x104f…c0a7backed Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…63e6backed Yes | 63c | 16.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.