Us Politics · resolved market
Trump x Elon talk before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7cd5667ba3fd7ba6978ced53b86edb40c26fe94e665101117741f032f1be4be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 8c | 6,568$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.37 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,571$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…657fbacked Yes | 25c | 2,145$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 8c | 1,888$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.26 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed No | 75c | 1,700$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 9c | 1,213$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2e…b2fabacked Yes | 22c | 1,143$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 3c | 1,142$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 23c | 1,060$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.89 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,004$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 79c | 910.39$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.48 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a50…1248backed Yes | 16c | 868.26$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 6c | 844.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 17c | 799.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 3c | 735$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 21c | 717$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.74 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 6c | 679$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 675.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 5c | 620$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed No | 78c | 517$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 77c | 516.71$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.84 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 77c | 502.97$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.91 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…a4b2backed Yes | 13c | 439.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 78c | 350$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 78c | 349.99$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9da0…eee9backed Yes | 22c | 333.02$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…0fdbbacked Yes | 20c | 330.26$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…b1e4backed No | 80c | 293.8$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…92b2backed Yes | 21c | 286.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 19c | 271.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…099dbacked No | 78c | 257.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed Yes | 23c | 256.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 250.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 79c | 244.19$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 25c | 231.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 76c | 230$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 77c | 213.03$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 211.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 204$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Yes | 15c | 199.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1975…5d7ebacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9613…7528backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6059…2f6ebacked Yes | 22c | 152.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…b806backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 74c | 149.33$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 12c | 145.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2115…1944backed Yes | 24c | 137.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…4001backed Yes | 22c | 131.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 80c | 126.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 79c | 114.23$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…f4f1backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9705…0f43backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +9.1wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b534backed Yes | 20c | 98.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…637bbacked Yes | 25c | 98.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 16c | 92.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…420cbacked Yes | 24c | 82.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…cf13backed Yes | 22c | 70.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 17c | 66.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…0e39backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 78c | 59.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef6…c761backed Yes | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6fd8backed Yes | 22c | 54.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…b128backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea61…8f05backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 78c | 35.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9766…0cb1backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 76c | 32.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea59…accebacked No | 76c | 27.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 77c | 25.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d34cbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…12a4backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.