Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaf7d1bdc9973a33a9b100ef99c2dd3d76aaa329c001ad5dddc3e5a64ec55561
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 41c | 32,859$13,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,433.9 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x111b…bad9backed No | 67c | 28,596$19,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,191.67 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +820.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…9728backed No | 69c | 23,515$16,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,286.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 41c | 10,352$4,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,116.24 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 33c | 3,940$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,642.38 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 23c | 3,500$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,682.62 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed No | 68c | 3,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…923bbacked Yes | 22c | 2,269$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.07 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +7.2wins | +0.60per pick | 24cpaid | +398.6%equal weight | 72+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 24c | 2,186$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.49 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 23c | 2,174$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.91 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,587$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.04 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36a8…e507backed No | 1c | 1,187$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.09 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +10.0wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 28c | 652.38$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.66 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 69c | 444$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.36 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd11e…699fbacked Yes | 25c | 421.84$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +78%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 62c | 395$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.5 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…c9c8backed Yes | 40c | 302.2$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 33c | 245$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 57c | 237.13$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.9 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 62c | 236.53$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.54 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09f9…a73cbacked Yes | 43c | 236.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 41c | 199.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.55 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a17…6348backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…e028backed Yes | 30c | 162.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 40cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 53c | 157.79$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.09 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9221…03a6backed Yes | 32c | 155.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…f622backed Yes | 23c | 153.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.38 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 147.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.72 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…4d5dbacked No | 9c | 145.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 60c | 114.8$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 51c | 111.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3f…306ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…7a4dbacked Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 72c | 90$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…e7e9backed Yes | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed No | 56c | 83.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4b…4761backed No | 62c | 80.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2541…60acbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…aa3dbacked Yes | 37c | 73.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +168%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 57c | 72.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…f7bdbacked Yes | 28c | 69.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7517…5880backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a1…b40ebacked Yes | 40c | 61.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…8ff5backed No | 69c | 56.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 70c | 53.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 43c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 53c | 50.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 29c | 49.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x432e…50f0backed No | 51c | 45.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd140…810dbacked No | 69c | 42.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…7fe1backed Yes | 48c | 42.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d4…6bb5backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdb…3365backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…cd20backed Yes | 68c | 35.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…cdcabacked No | 73c | 32.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6fd8backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda92…95febacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…767bbacked Yes | 40c | 25.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…b743backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…8fbbbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.