Movies · resolved market
"Demon Slayer" grosses higher than "The Conjuring" opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda1ca397554b073c890fa03c67d64075a05748a1cd72202323ba6d5fd885e009
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $613,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $619,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $613,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x526d…ebd8backed Yes | 3c | 262,194$7,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,798.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 9c | 32,029$2,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,915.66 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 8c | 20,023$1,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.29 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 8c | 8,697$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.29 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…5d58backed Yes | 11c | 8,165$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1589…688bbacked Yes | 8c | 8,016$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 9c | 7,647$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.19 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 11c | 7,641$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.39 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…fc9dbacked Yes | 5c | 6,199$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 12c | 5,979$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…9d51backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 3,905$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.44 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…a121backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked No | 80c | 2,879$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.3 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…5c7bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,830$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,798$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf78e…9222backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b9…7bf8backed Yes | 3c | 1,667$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec68…581dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,571$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed Yes | 28c | 1,480$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…fcbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,300$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3119…c8f8backed Yes | 4c | 1,293$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…cbcdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 1,053$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 76c | 992.46$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7222backed Yes | 5c | 813.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 56c | 801.61$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.98 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked No | 65c | 766.99$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.33 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3464backed Yes | 5c | 756.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 2c | 700.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3984…9757backed Yes | 8c | 688.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 622$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 5c | 620.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76c2…8bc5backed Yes | 42c | 567.08$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…34bcbacked Yes | 43c | 551.16$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 31c | 542.62$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.9 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…d097backed Yes | 4c | 499.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d84…2a04backed Yes | 3c | 468.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3928…1e39backed Yes | 6c | 463.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 461.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c76…e521backed Yes | 7c | 451.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5c…e0fcbacked Yes | 5c | 447.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…0b3fbacked Yes | 7c | 399.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 67c | 372.33$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.67 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bf…bc30backed Yes | 4c | 361.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 13c | 351.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 26c | 347.67$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.06 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf4…f2fdbacked No | 80c | 339.43$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 16c | 324.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 13c | 317.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 313.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d60…17efbacked Yes | 41c | 303$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 62c | 300.51$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.18 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a93…f76dbacked Yes | 6c | 298.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…b103backed Yes | 9c | 284.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 48c | 273.42$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…a183backed No | 65c | 208.74$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -86%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 14c | 205.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…dcdebacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 8c | 193.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed No | 77c | 191.54$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 35c | 182$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked No | 60c | 172.11$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.56 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…5e9bbacked Yes | 7c | 169.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…446abacked No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…dd30backed Yes | 39c | 165$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e2…16c6backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 125.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89c1…bd6cbacked Yes | 10c | 118.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…5defbacked No | 56c | 88.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ee…113ebacked No | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 36c | 68.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 36c | 65.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…91adbacked Yes | 28c | 64.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…1ebdbacked No | 57c | 52.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 38c | 50.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…0570backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14e…7e5fbacked No | 52c | 45.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…6ff5backed Yes | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…0f2dbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes | 60c | 33.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.