TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

"Demon Slayer" grosses higher than "The Conjuring" opening weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$613,053
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$619,159

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $613,053 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x526d…ebd8backed Yes3c262,194$7,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,798.530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes9c32,029$2,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,915.668930.3%27 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes8c20,023$1,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677.299545.3%43 W · 52 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30504%2 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes8c8,697$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.295726.3%15 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aca…5d58backed Yes11c8,165$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1589…688bbacked Yes8c8,016$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes9c7,647$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.195848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes11c7,641$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.3910331.1%32 W · 71 L+0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1c…fc9dbacked Yes5c6,199$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes12c5,979$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70129735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes2c5,000$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.88728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-53.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6756…9d51backed Yes2c4,000$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes11c3,905$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.442420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52be…a121backed Yes8c3,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked No80c2,879$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.35839.7%23 W · 35 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7963…5c7bbacked Yes10c2,830$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.77520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-68.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,798$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.681,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53cb…fc91backed Yes36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-59.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf78e…9222backed Yes1c2,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b67…1b07backed Yes6c2,000$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.82339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03b9…7bf8backed Yes3c1,667$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec68…581dbacked Yes1c1,571$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8933…1495backed Yes28c1,480$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.661650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4451…fcbebacked Yes3c1,300$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.21450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3119…c8f8backed Yes4c1,293$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5060…cbcdbacked Yes6c1,200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-61.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes3c1,053$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5912923.3%30 W · 99 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No76c992.46$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.61475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+103.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cab…7222backed Yes5c813.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fa6…16f9backed No56c801.61$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.9815054.7%82 W · 68 L+30.5wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+62.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xd453…75ebbacked No65c766.99$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.335525.5%14 W · 41 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xef72…3464backed Yes5c756.6$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.83425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-54.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes2c700.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3984…9757backed Yes8c688.89$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c622$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6214212%17 W · 125 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-75.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c00…0788backed Yes5c620.77$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1750%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76c2…8bc5backed Yes42c567.08$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x900b…34bcbacked Yes43c551.16$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes31c542.62$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.914015%21 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa196…d097backed Yes4c499.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.991030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d84…2a04backed Yes3c468.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3928…1e39backed Yes6c463.83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.83190%0 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes8c461.95$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9648414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c76…e521backed Yes7c451.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc5c…e0fcbacked Yes5c447.28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6b…0b3fbacked Yes7c399.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No67c372.33$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.674136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x96bf…bc30backed Yes4c361.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes13c351.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9680%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked Yes26c347.67$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.069851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf4…f2fdbacked No80c339.43$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes16c324.33$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.739442.6%40 W · 54 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed Yes13c317.64$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.91333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes6c313.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.56894.5%4 W · 85 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d60…17efbacked Yes41c303$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No62c300.51$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.1816237.7%61 W · 101 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a93…f76dbacked Yes6c298.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2f6…b103backed Yes9c284.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes48c273.42$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed No65c208.74$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.99119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-86%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes14c205.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.783622.2%8 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47e0…dcdebacked Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed No55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9016624.1%40 W · 126 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes8c193.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.641546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8fa…77b5backed No77c191.54$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.05850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes35c182$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.162123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x278f…715fbacked No60c172.11$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.561172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa131…5e9bbacked Yes7c169.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96fc…446abacked No59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.49560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5025…dd30backed Yes39c165$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e2…16c6backed Yes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes43c125.5$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4487033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x89c1…bd6cbacked Yes10c118.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf933…52fbbacked No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3712240.2%49 W · 73 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4317041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x358e…5defbacked No56c88.6$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ee…113ebacked No59c82.66$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed No63c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc3d…498abacked Yes36c68.54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.39812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-64.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde0e…746abacked Yes36c65.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d33…91adbacked Yes28c64.52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99f1…1ebdbacked No57c52.48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.48771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+51.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes38c50.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.576036.7%22 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb83…0570backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd14e…7e5fbacked No52c45.79$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.98812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6f2…6ff5backed Yes48c45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.640%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe693…0f2dbacked No51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes60c33.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-50.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4083…363fbacked No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.63450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.