Token Launches · resolved market
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4953e7cd36b1f9307fa4cabd84df4202d1483ad3e448b0eec7794c76dc3cb9a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 8c | 5,334$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.67 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd69b…1ed8backed Yes | 21c | 4,453$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.14 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 16c | 1,524$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 69c | 699.99$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6da…94c2backed Yes | 21c | 600$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…596bbacked Yes | 14c | 500$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 69c | 433.99$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.5 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 400$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…340bbacked No | 74c | 305.65$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Yes | 29c | 249.15$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d44…14fabacked Yes | 10c | 247.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15cd…38b6backed Yes | 12c | 231.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a88…f3ebbacked Yes | 11c | 221.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…9074backed Yes | 53c | 187.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb373…4280backed Yes | 30c | 167$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7222backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…3f1bbacked No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4a…bed1backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 15c | 121.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -15.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 120.56$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8d…6a32backed No | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8c…6449backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4317…485cbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fb…e089backed Yes | 17c | 67.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c5…29cfbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 35c | 59.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7689…2fa9backed No | 51c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x559d…585cbacked Yes | 30c | 44.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 74c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e3…1dbbbacked No | 64c | 38.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?this page
- Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April?No won
- Will Dogecoin dip to $0.11 in April?No won
- Will Dogecoin dip to $0.13 in April?Yes won
- Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 in April?Yes won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.22 in April?No won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.