Movies · resolved market
Will 'Alien: Romulus' gross more than $50m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecb07d32e2f469ee50745638d6c7a68e06f9b10f7bc3f399f59ed0823ebd2175
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $224,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 0c | 26,934$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.61 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 0c | 3,902$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 9c | 3,552$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.39 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…9b75backed Yes | 1c | 1,375$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 68c | 1,191$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.17 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb47…fde1backed Yes | 3c | 1,153$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…bbc0backed No | 80c | 1,022$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0e…399fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…17cfbacked Yes | 2c | 810.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 73c | 653$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.31 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…6501backed Yes | 33c | 575$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 22c | 565.23$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.76 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c15fbacked No | 52c | 532.92$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a8…3b8fbacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…db84backed No | 78c | 397$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…5701backed Yes | 65c | 383.14$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 6c | 322.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…a975backed Yes | 36c | 314.62$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…7b16backed Yes | 8c | 272.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 49c | 249.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.83 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…82eebacked No | 52c | 240$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 15c | 238.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 48c | 220$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…540dbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…7c89backed Yes | 35c | 150$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked No | 65c | 131.63$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 35c | 131$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6880…8abebacked Yes | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 31cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x534f…616abacked Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…0df4backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 78c | 35.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…fed1backed Yes | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed No | 48c | 33.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a80…cdd9backed No | 71c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Alien: Romulus' gross more than $50m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Alien: Romulus' gross between $44m and $50m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Alien: Romulus' gross less than $44m opening weekend?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.