Movies · resolved market
Will 'Alien: Romulus' gross less than $44m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf10b06088d1b7a68a52a3f709264c957778488f39d1d28c7550c7e1b604a4261
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 1c | 6,148$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 31c | 3,162$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,171.53 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 69c | 2,827$1,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,949.39 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 37c | 2,545$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,616.09 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 49c | 2,175$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.65 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Yes | 31c | 1,697$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…b93fbacked No | 50c | 1,584$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 63c | 1,147$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.24 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 37c | 829.14$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.13 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 750.63$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.08 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 76c | 733.52$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.01 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed No | 11c | 718.79$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 75c | 700$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 38c | 500$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.32 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6880…8abebacked No | 44c | 414.98$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…f732backed No | 27c | 374.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a8…3b8fbacked No | 61c | 245.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c15fbacked No | 62c | 226.9$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 67c | 206.12$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…3ababacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked No | 25c | 149.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…c521backed No | 65c | 137.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x534f…616abacked Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 77c | 129.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Yes | 69c | 113.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…7c89backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…eccabacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…6424backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…e44bbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…a94dbacked Yes | 19c | 65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes | 53c | 56.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 74c | 55.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadbc…d00fbacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…5d6fbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…549dbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…60aebacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…b59bbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…20a3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 75c | 16.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Alien: Romulus' gross less than $44m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Alien: Romulus' gross between $44m and $50m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Alien: Romulus' gross more than $50m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.