Movies · resolved market
Will 'Alien: Romulus' gross between $44m and $50m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x835132c85eeeb16881577733cb6ae8beda33e644bf74500c7aaaddb1bd6e10d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 66c | 1,244$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.96 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 36c | 1,210$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.8 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 1,175$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.61 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 36c | 910$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.5 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 42c | 876.24$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.39 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…711bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe395…2a72backed Yes | 30c | 473.7$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 20c | 380.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 371.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…a975backed No | 70c | 328.57$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…b6f9backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 64c | 139.25$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…9236backed Yes | 17c | 126.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…6501backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 30c | 88.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6880…8abebacked Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…60aebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…5924backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Alien: Romulus' gross between $44m and $50m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Alien: Romulus' gross less than $44m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Alien: Romulus' gross more than $50m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.