Tennis · resolved market
Will Taylor Fritz win the US Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b7946387945110d5ae2afcaad929fb6663cecd660b16f1248a4f8632b26fab3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b9e…74aebacked Yes | 2c | 22,054$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.61 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f5…f2dbbacked Yes | 23c | 13,181$2,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,970.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes | 23c | 5,881$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…7407backed Yes | 2c | 5,737$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc578…fab0backed Yes | 5c | 5,307$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…8618backed Yes | 21c | 5,108$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…0ff9backed Yes | 19c | 4,938$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 2c | 4,717$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.56 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b46…3af5backed Yes | 5c | 2,878$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 6c | 2,352$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 19c | 2,256$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.72 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f15…a1b6backed Yes | 5c | 2,023$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 22c | 2,006$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4c…54e7backed Yes | 17c | 1,826$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,600$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.53 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…47c6backed Yes | 20c | 1,481$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…664dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,449$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 2c | 1,440$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 13c | 1,230$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.48 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 9c | 1,208$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.18 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…c5aebacked Yes | 21c | 1,162$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,116$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…6ee4backed Yes | 19c | 1,058$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.75 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…ed1fbacked Yes | 2c | 963.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 4c | 951.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c3…dacdbacked Yes | 22c | 938.26$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f2…08fabacked Yes | 11c | 662.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 11c | 620.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 19c | 565.47$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8024…ba91backed Yes | 9c | 555.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…7b53backed Yes | 18c | 550$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 20c | 500$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 158 | 60.8%96 W · 62 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 13c | 500$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…1612backed Yes | 19c | 500$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 20c | 492.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 5c | 491.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7afa…5394backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…d829backed Yes | 22c | 453.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 16c | 439.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.71 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb5…14b1backed Yes | 7c | 374.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Yes | 4c | 313.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 7c | 291.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked No | 80c | 253.3$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 11c | 247.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Yes | 19c | 225.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e13…dc49backed Yes | 23c | 219.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…ed5abacked Yes | 10c | 204.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 18c | 203.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…d35ebacked Yes | 22c | 200.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 20c | 200.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 19c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 16c | 177.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…6fffbacked Yes | 17c | 157$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 22c | 136.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…1181backed Yes | 22c | 91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5804…dc41backed Yes | 22c | 67.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc224…cd43backed Yes | 24c | 62.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d09…2a35backed Yes | 37c | 50.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…fe58backed No | 79c | 29.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…081dbacked No | 79c | 29.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…503ebacked No | 79c | 23.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Taylor Fritz win the US Open?this page
- Will Alexander Zverev win the US Open?No won
- Will Andrey Rublev win the US Open?No won
- Will Ben Shelton win the US Open?No won
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win the US Open?No won
- Will Daniil Medvedev win the US Open?No won
- Will Frances Tiafoe win the US Open?No won
- Will Jannik Sinner win the US Open?Yes won
- Will Matteo Berrettini win the US Open?No won
- Will Novak Djokovic win the US Open?No won
- Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the US Open?No won
- Will Tommy Paul win the US Open?No won
- Will another player win the US Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.