TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Will Daniil Medvedev win the US Open?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,793
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,544

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,793 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb639…bf6dbacked Yes21c8,612$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,777.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes5c7,982$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.13928.2%11 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8c8…7407backed Yes6c7,305$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.35425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-58.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked Yes6c5,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Yes6c5,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes13c3,780$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.744837.5%18 W · 30 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-31.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x464e…7bd8backed Yes18c2,722$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.34119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed Yes18c2,285$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.733138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x741e…2f80backed Yes16c2,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes22c2,000$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1868…dcd5backed Yes17c1,461$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes13c1,225$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.192420.8%5 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-42.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c5…70d9backed Yes17c1,183$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f47…af93backed Yes18c876.2$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.611533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc578…fab0backed Yes8c675.35$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.72911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-71.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x685e…bb41backed Yes19c667.77$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.922128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes17c600$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.228141.6%117 W · 164 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a29…8864backed Yes16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+44.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204e…4236backed Yes4c473.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2570%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8d4…8cb4backed Yes12c450$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda03…65febacked Yes23c443.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ef…a38cbacked Yes9c431.23$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde77…65d2backed Yes6c416.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes9c407.39$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.651540%6 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes19c400.62$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.22751.9%14 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa81e…e6fabacked Yes9c376.44$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5616…a88cbacked Yes18c355.76$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f35…70eebacked Yes18c329.89$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8024…ba91backed Yes6c300$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb805…9e99backed Yes17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ee1…99f5backed Yes10c290.16$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No78c276.47$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.674353.5%23 W · 20 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes23c230$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff42…83e5backed Yes18c223.81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40a9…5d72backed Yes7c220$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x000a…6df9backed Yes7c220$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3102…406abacked Yes17c205$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes8c200.34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7911956.3%67 W · 52 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb984…2a41backed Yes18c200$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick19cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c43…b289backed Yes6c199$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.941233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-55.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3d…742fbacked Yes17c170.88$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.05825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca2e…581abacked Yes16c158.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad45…6fffbacked Yes13c150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe266…add3backed Yes11c136.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes9c128$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.651414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa58…030bbacked Yes19c120$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.38933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183737.8%14 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b5f…7a25backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01d0…9ca3backed Yes22c90.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6588…d868backed Yes20c71.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a9e…1256backed Yes30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…6ddcbacked No80c26.63$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb93f…b861backed No79c24.18$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.