TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the US Open?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,889
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,988

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,889 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xae0f…f647backed Yes32c3,382$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.55450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No71c3,000$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8704040%16 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde32…7b53backed Yes31c2,870$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.61540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes4c2,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Yes29c2,198$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.511,19348.9%583 W · 610 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes30c2,102$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.681938.9%319 W · 500 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Yes31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6203537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes28c1,572$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.11464.3%9 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.29per pick36cpaid+76.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Yes32c1,000$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.3714345.5%65 W · 78 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4813…ae12backed Yes25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Yes29c725$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.255429.6%16 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked No71c700$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2031030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d2…90abbacked Yes30c666.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20fd…91c7backed Yes32c625$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7012…14a4backed Yes31c583.87$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3832…35e1backed Yes30c539.61$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40e3…0787backed No70c509$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.7366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4825…007dbacked No71c500.19$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ace…e0ebbacked Yes29c478.52$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe896…0b70backed Yes24c401.97$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9186…9220backed Yes28c401.33$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab3…d47cbacked Yes29c375.46$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1411143.2%48 W · 63 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Yes28c360$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.81822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x685e…bb41backed Yes33c347.06$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1142128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0060…eb25backed Yes29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9193…c86cbacked Yes32c344$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.081145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde77…65d2backed Yes30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee95…02ddbacked Yes30c333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb805…9e99backed Yes32c313.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb231…99a4backed No69c313.72$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadc4…9e02backed Yes32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1fe…c728backed Yes31c300$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87bb…8ecdbacked Yes29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f2…0659backed Yes30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903447.1%16 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+27.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x001a…fc4cbacked Yes29c299.99$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7746…e0b8backed No70c299.97$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d92…3852backed Yes29c298.83$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.66425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-65%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ab8…ae32backed Yes34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2361…314bbacked Yes30c293.87$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0232…9391backed Yes32c249.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7cc…4952backed Yes28c229.47$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.251936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No69c209.66$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654348.8%21 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed No72c201.5$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9211956.3%67 W · 52 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7941…c675backed Yes29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-44.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5977…2136backed No70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes21c199.9$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.683534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x688e…a8f1backed Yes26c180$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd0a…63abbacked No74c175.67$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.881844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff05…d35ebacked Yes32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1180…8e39backed Yes34c150$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8024…ba91backed Yes29c150$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.122218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes30c146.67$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442420.8%5 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-42.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes29c137.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.274837.5%18 W · 30 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-31.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7cb…b857backed No70c133$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.92744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ee…3d11backed Yes32c125$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No60c105$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424353.5%23 W · 20 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9314…1e98backed Yes26c104.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.05633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-54.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xda46…4546backed No74c104.05$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No67c102.62$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344459.1%26 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4215…1116backed No71c101.09$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.672623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3573…b6f9backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid+22.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad45…6fffbacked Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x000a…6df9backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4eed…7304backed Yes24c99.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb2e…4d83backed No78c99.92$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.782560%15 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked No71c80$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.22751.9%14 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x42ca…b2b7backed Yes30c77.07$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb500…6db0backed Yes33c76.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ea…9516backed Yes31c74.52$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes34c73.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bc5…7737backed Yes30c72.53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09b6…f48dbacked Yes32c68.96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2232050%160 W · 160 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ef…2dc0backed Yes30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9efd…431fbacked Yes32c65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.81145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+55.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdeec…a303backed Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+42%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f95…8c17backed Yes29c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ccb…175ebacked Yes29c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bbe…0d3abacked Yes29c55.17$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd385…af0dbacked Yes29c51.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-68.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c2b…4a85backed Yes29c51.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3814…588dbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c61…021cbacked Yes31c48.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ee…92d8backed Yes32c43.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb5…14b1backed Yes30c43.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.97616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-68.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x253c…aa25backed Yes32c40.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65d8…946cbacked Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76cd…e2c6backed Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb7…2b81backed Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa58…030bbacked Yes30c35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.33933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c6…32e4backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8f0…0446backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+75.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed No70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.571338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x968e…3303backed No72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.78425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-65.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83fc…665abacked No72c20.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.