Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Pegula vs. Muchova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e1d6d1cfd275484c1659c340fe728a5aef956b2d525f87472ce2e9b307e2487
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pegulaof Pegula, Muchova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Pegula | 39c | 6,901$2,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,179.53 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2710…a28fbacked Muchova | 76c | 5,453$4,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,170.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…22a9backed Pegula | 72c | 5,086$3,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Muchova | 44c | 3,396$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.08 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…c5aebacked Pegula | 51c | 2,626$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…e058backed Muchova | 43c | 2,335$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Pegula | 74c | 1,543$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed Pegula | 59c | 1,200$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.86 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Muchova | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 921 | 45.2%416 W · 505 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Muchova | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Muchova | 41c | 906.09$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.5 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2b…8fa0backed Pegula | 57c | 871.3$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +202.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed Muchova | 38c | 870$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Muchova | 30c | 815.39$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.12 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Pegula | 59c | 599.99$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Pegula | 66c | 550$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Pegula | 57c | 523.12$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Muchova | 40c | 500.41$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.16 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…9fbbbacked Muchova | 40c | 491.46$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Pegula | 62c | 405.93$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Muchova | 40c | 363.86$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.55 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa2…0204backed Pegula | 22c | 360$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed Pegula | 74c | 337.67$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Muchova | 39c | 247.88$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.69 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…6fffbacked Muchova | 63c | 230$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.89 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Muchova | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1d…fcc4backed Pegula | 57c | 166.35$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…ff37backed Pegula | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…7b00backed Pegula | 64c | 163.17$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…8e39backed Pegula | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Pegula | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Pegula | 69c | 105$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked Muchova | 47c | 102.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Muchova | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Muchova | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…d377backed Muchova | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Pegula | 60c | 71.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Pegula | 60c | 57.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb5…14b1backed Pegula | 53c | 52.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Pegula | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0edd…3d1dbacked Muchova | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…a88cbacked Pegula | 60c | 35.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…9adabacked Muchova | 59c | 34.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…d35ebacked Pegula | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c5…f001backed Pegula | 60c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Muchova | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.