Weather · resolved market
August temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29°C?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa7c3f38df227ee85db0511e88ecc329e6d715476a36017211723dfda23b1dce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c96…ac7dbacked Yes | 61c | 9,000$5,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,445.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 35c | 8,212$2,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,833.62 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 70c | 6,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c8…d3e7backed Yes | 40c | 5,310$2,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,123.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +79%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e8…ce3bbacked Yes | 79c | 3,582$2,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,838 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 34c | 3,313$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…8138backed Yes | 35c | 3,044$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 41c | 3,031$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,792.08 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 36c | 2,676$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.27 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked Yes | 33c | 2,134$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.98 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 54c | 1,700$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 40c | 1,277$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.61 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…bbc0backed Yes | 60c | 1,059$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked No | 2c | 1,059$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +2,937.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 31c | 1,040$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.99 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…ce48backed Yes | 48c | 1,030$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52c9…7f71backed Yes | 52c | 993.33$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 22c | 600$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 37c | 511$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes | 62c | 427.18$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 424.07$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…6f77backed No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25fa…2a2ebacked Yes | 23c | 360$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 48c | 349.03$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.77 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…a83cbacked Yes | 32c | 314.29$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…df5abacked Yes | 33c | 306.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…fb7dbacked No | 68c | 267.46$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…39cfbacked Yes | 44c | 225$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 45c | 205$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…df37backed Yes | 55c | 200.91$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x199b…d287backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 54c | 195$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…b4c3backed Yes | 68c | 178.55$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b21…b951backed Yes | 36c | 167.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked No | 54c | 148$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes | 70c | 143.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 50c | 141.7$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed Yes | 39c | 128$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed13…494dbacked Yes | 67c | 120.3$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…d8b9backed Yes | 56c | 116.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb276…d4debacked Yes | 31c | 105$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked Yes | 31c | 100.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…7680backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…7d08backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…102abacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31cc…a72bbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…642dbacked Yes | 33c | 93.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 31c | 88.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…3460backed Yes | 33c | 87.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 61c | 81.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…e44bbacked Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4b…1304backed No | 69c | 72.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89fd…e8c5backed Yes | 60c | 66.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 29c | 65.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe444…2001backed No | 71c | 64.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf760…bf84backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd480…7cffbacked Yes | 35c | 59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…b700backed No | 75c | 46.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…6239backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d28…02eebacked No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…1493backed No | 72c | 39.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 30c | 34.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…0636backed Yes | 34c | 33.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1009…ff70backed Yes | 33c | 33.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc78…e036backed No | 72c | 32.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…0db0backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2d…b009backed Yes | 63c | 28.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4663…457abacked Yes | 45c | 27.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…20a3backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- August temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29°C?this page
- August temperature increase by between 1.15-1.19°C?No won
- August temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24°C?No won
- August temperature increase by less than 1.15°C?No won
- August temperature increase greater than 1.29°C?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.