Weather · resolved market
August temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24°C?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed117d5ff1bee649915bf6032010d03de49c8641d4893b8349c9a543abd09b3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $386,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $321,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $386,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2728…a83cbacked Yes | 4c | 134,811$5,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,506.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 5c | 53,726$2,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,853.06 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 3c | 45,049$1,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.93 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 4c | 30,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 4c | 10,930$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.11 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 6c | 9,123$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.21 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c8…d3e7backed Yes | 29c | 8,776$2,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,545.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +79%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 6,160$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.08 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 4c | 5,096$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.82 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 9c | 4,149$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.67 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes | 3c | 3,785$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…fb7dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,758$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…b93fbacked Yes | 10c | 3,446$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…8138backed Yes | 26c | 3,140$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25fa…2a2ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,779$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed Yes | 4c | 2,684$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 8cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 16c | 2,681$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.88 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 3c | 2,272$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked Yes | 10c | 2,092$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.42 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,998$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.77 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 27c | 1,421$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd480…7cffbacked Yes | 5c | 1,384$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,090$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4987…804bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…b136backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa883…31fbbacked Yes | 3c | 900$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…d297backed Yes | 7c | 807.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 30c | 782.78$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.75 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae65…d7cdbacked Yes | 15c | 757.97$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…ec72backed Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…d8b9backed Yes | 5c | 649.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…70babacked Yes | 3c | 498.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 22c | 436.56$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.31 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb67…970abacked Yes | 24c | 417.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 7c | 405$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…664dbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…ca63backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde70…0039backed No | 73c | 275.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c6…3bd6backed Yes | 28c | 246.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 30c | 221.75$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 219.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b21…b951backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…7d08backed Yes | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x819d…68f9backed Yes | 7c | 190$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed Yes | 30c | 166$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…5525backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…7f4fbacked Yes | 34c | 125$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4663…457abacked Yes | 26c | 110.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 36c | 110$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…7680backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb38…33ebbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 33c | 98.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…9c22backed Yes | 31c | 76.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 34c | 69.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…eb94backed Yes | 25c | 63.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf1…2f51backed No | 77c | 63.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1888…2e8ebacked Yes | 23c | 60.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbb…81c4backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b85…91c9backed No | 77c | 58.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aed…0895backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0c…7fc2backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…6239backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa082…1d9fbacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- August temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24°C?this page
- August temperature increase by between 1.15-1.19°C?No won
- August temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29°C?No won
- August temperature increase by less than 1.15°C?No won
- August temperature increase greater than 1.29°C?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.