Weather · resolved market
August temperature increase by between 1.15-1.19°C?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d21171331eb7efcf6b2339c1e4e56ce176803a49bd1efc007834c61cd6b735a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $432,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $432,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 1c | 68,891$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.8 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 1c | 43,943$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.18 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 1c | 30,623$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.6 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…a83cbacked Yes | 3c | 30,509$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked Yes | 1c | 24,950$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.22 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…2da3backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 2c | 14,342$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.03 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 6c | 14,339$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.74 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 6c | 14,008$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.03 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 12,381$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52c9…7f71backed Yes | 1c | 9,015$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked Yes | 8c | 8,776$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…5e93backed Yes | 0c | 6,974$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes | 1c | 4,963$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 8c | 4,855$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.85 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 1c | 4,675$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 4c | 4,434$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.33 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0c…c823backed Yes | 10c | 4,074$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,088$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25fa…2a2ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,840$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,681$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.19 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1f…9cdebacked Yes | 11c | 2,250$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fd…969abacked Yes | 2c | 1,765$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 9c | 1,267$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4987…804bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,032$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…acecbacked Yes | 2c | 1,020$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb67…970abacked Yes | 10c | 1,007$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…7515backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…5525backed Yes | 3c | 888.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd480…7cffbacked Yes | 3c | 699.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…70babacked Yes | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e14…6de9backed Yes | 2c | 582.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…664dbacked Yes | 9c | 473.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 5c | 444$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…ca63backed Yes | 7c | 433.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ef…144abacked Yes | 12c | 433.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 11c | 374$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6056…7227backed Yes | 7c | 370$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…d297backed Yes | 4c | 358.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 8c | 270$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb451…4746backed Yes | 4c | 266$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…9dc7backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb43…b10abacked Yes | 7c | 219.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b7…1028backed Yes | 12c | 212.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…9b75backed Yes | 11c | 173.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…dc7cbacked Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aed…0895backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- August temperature increase by between 1.15-1.19°C?this page
- August temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24°C?No won
- August temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29°C?No won
- August temperature increase by less than 1.15°C?No won
- August temperature increase greater than 1.29°C?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.