Weather · resolved market
August temperature increase by less than 1.15°C?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfe1f4ddd4769cbabdca18d3bbf2fc4dddfcd90d7d4c34b06fcb25d6e4bbf4ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $473,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $473,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3943…5b47backed Yes | 0c | 72,822$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 62,593$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.59 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 1c | 55,989$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.34 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52c9…7f71backed Yes | 0c | 36,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 1c | 27,639$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.25 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…a83cbacked Yes | 1c | 22,826$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 0c | 17,982$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 13,455$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.25 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…83d1backed Yes | 15c | 12,466$1,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,893.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 0c | 12,318$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 2c | 9,813$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.9 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked Yes | 1c | 9,671$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes | 0c | 7,458$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…2da3backed Yes | 1c | 6,393$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1f…9cdebacked Yes | 2c | 5,153$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 0c | 4,833$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3adf…d8b0backed Yes | 0c | 4,137$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0c…c823backed Yes | 3c | 4,074$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,681$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19ba…d34bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,618$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…5e93backed Yes | 0c | 2,491$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb43…b10abacked Yes | 2c | 2,054$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e72…3e8dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…fb7dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,778$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…ca63backed Yes | 2c | 1,541$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ef…144abacked Yes | 4c | 1,252$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked No | 9c | 1,074$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +2,937.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,057$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf94…7169backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…17cfbacked No | 9c | 902.45$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,687.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 2c | 892.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 3c | 750$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…664dbacked Yes | 2c | 578.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…d592backed Yes | 3c | 537.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +318.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…9b75backed Yes | 4c | 511.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…cd16backed Yes | 4c | 356.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa071…d1d6backed Yes | 4c | 252.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- August temperature increase by less than 1.15°C?this page
- August temperature increase by between 1.15-1.19°C?No won
- August temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24°C?No won
- August temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29°C?No won
- August temperature increase greater than 1.29°C?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.