Weather · resolved market
August temperature increase greater than 1.29°C?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c95c926e924f243aab41e96a90d22fcaf8cf273a678a07c49abb95fde489678
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $213,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $202,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2728…a83cbacked No | 38c | 47,971$18,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,392 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 35c | 7,930$2,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,775.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c8…d3e7backed Yes | 17c | 7,787$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,463.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +79%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…5e93backed Yes | 39c | 6,247$2,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,833.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c96…ac7dbacked Yes | 38c | 5,715$2,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,560.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…ce48backed No | 66c | 5,551$3,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,691.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked Yes | 40c | 5,000$2,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,985 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 38c | 3,487$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.05 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed No | 76c | 2,834$2,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked Yes | 29c | 2,696$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,917.8 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 36c | 2,676$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.64 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 30c | 2,369$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.56 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 40c | 2,190$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c5…923dbacked No | 46c | 2,157$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…ab2ebacked Yes | 62c | 1,500$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 55c | 1,432$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.71 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 60c | 1,387$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.28 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked No | 40c | 1,335$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.37 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 53c | 1,163$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.18 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed Yes | 16c | 1,111$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 8cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…ec52backed No | 74c | 1,108$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…eaacbacked Yes | 31c | 999.99$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…c86dbacked Yes | 72c | 969.95$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 35c | 964.83$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.99 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25fa…2a2ebacked No | 29c | 671.98$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 50c | 649.97$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.4 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…99a4backed Yes | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…8138backed No | 64c | 504.05$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed No | 31c | 473.85$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.25 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0c…c823backed No | 63c | 423.63$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…df5abacked Yes | 29c | 343.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…17cfbacked Yes | 4c | 324.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,687.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52c9…7f71backed Yes | 31c | 319.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…ca63backed Yes | 31c | 318.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…df37backed Yes | 55c | 311.76$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5a…ed52backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3765…c121backed No | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…f87bbacked Yes | 19c | 265$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…664dbacked Yes | 39c | 255.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…0df4backed No | 69c | 250$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…7a45backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 68c | 248.37$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.93 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb67…970abacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.27 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 32c | 212$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.16 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…d592backed Yes | 12c | 209.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +318.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d9…bb87backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…cd16backed No | 69c | 203.18$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb38…33ebbacked No | 72c | 193.97$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…fb7dbacked Yes | 67c | 179.73$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc708…99a2backed Yes | 47c | 173.06$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 13c | 172.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…5ce5backed Yes | 14c | 152$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +252.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa939…adf2backed Yes | 31c | 151.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed No | 70c | 143$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 21c | 140$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…b4c3backed No | 79c | 140$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed No | 34c | 133.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed13…494dbacked Yes | 27c | 120.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.82 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 18c | 119.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.39 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…b557backed Yes | 18c | 118.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…9b75backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…2179backed Yes | 73c | 100.05$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…102abacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…e44bbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…6e1abacked Yes | 39c | 91.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ff…91a1backed Yes | 39c | 88.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7759…ad5cbacked No | 63c | 54.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 70c | 53.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…e484backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08d3…46a6backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94c3…76d3backed No | 37c | 39.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 39.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed No | 65c | 38.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…44f6backed No | 63c | 38.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbb…81c4backed No | 77c | 36.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0368…37e7backed No | 59c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…3110backed Yes | 31c | 35.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +226%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x819d…68f9backed No | 36c | 33.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…d8b9backed No | 52c | 32.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd551…e3ebbacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd480…7cffbacked No | 70c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…7515backed Yes | 65c | 26.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…6239backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f8…017cbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe395…2a72backed No | 69c | 17.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- August temperature increase greater than 1.29°C?this page
- August temperature increase by between 1.15-1.19°C?No won
- August temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24°C?No won
- August temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29°C?No won
- August temperature increase by less than 1.15°C?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.