Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7c9963469ff182981085fba3d92ce51e5677bb21f27928f37f4914dc4f8d609
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,098 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 11c | 17,972$2,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050.78 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 18c | 5,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…176dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,499$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.13 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 14c | 2,260$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.29 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 1,425$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.64 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 11c | 1,416$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d3…e73fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,089$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 13c | 839.31$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.89 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 11c | 767.4$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…cbd5backed Yes | 9c | 751$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 719.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 12c | 693.3$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x917c…66f2backed Yes | 14c | 627.82$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 620.66$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bc…2450backed Yes | 17c | 579.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 573.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4e…4f6ebacked Yes | 20c | 544.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 16c | 500$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 14c | 491.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 12c | 490.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +159%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked Yes | 17c | 484.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 13c | 476.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac50…8a29backed Yes | 14c | 463.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 8c | 439.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…79a1backed Yes | 12c | 403.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ca…2c14backed Yes | 7c | 352.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 8c | 321.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 11c | 299.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 14c | 299.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb6…5e8abacked Yes | 17c | 299.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ec…6c90backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…dbcabacked Yes | 11c | 280$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…717ebacked Yes | 14c | 255.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 13c | 237.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x893a…36edbacked Yes | 16c | 220$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Yes | 12c | 203.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…8814backed Yes | 12c | 173.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 12c | 170.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8808…3401backed Yes | 6c | 169.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 13c | 166.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 16c | 140.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2452…bcb8backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 133.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 12c | 121.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…adebbacked Yes | 9c | 121.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7a…1d90backed Yes | 9c | 109.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c9…8cd0backed Yes | 12c | 104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…6cffbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…0a2fbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b6…f9d9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…997ebacked Yes | 11c | 91.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…9dc1backed Yes | 13c | 87.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 16c | 80.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ff…5596backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb9…9dbabacked Yes | 17c | 67.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…abdbbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in February?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in February?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in February?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in February?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in February?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.1% in February?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.