TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,121

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,121 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes41c19,605$7,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,632.6522433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed No59c9,684$5,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,704.078632.6%28 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f7b…8ed8backed Yes43c8,512$3,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,857.362334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed No60c6,578$3,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,935.6212820.3%26 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c3e…176dbacked Yes40c4,505$1,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,711.723426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82ed…25a4backed No3c3,400$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9660%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes40c3,020$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,813.18636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No58c1,910$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.4312049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes43c1,885$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.827030%21 W · 49 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No57c1,783$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.677122.5%16 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No14c1,570$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.83010%3 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes40c1,421$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.5214325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72b2…5548backed Yes43c1,178$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes41c1,131$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.992524%6 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-39.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x497b…717ebacked Yes44c1,087$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.74633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6768…692dbacked Yes40c1,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001450%7 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No55c896.07$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.61764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No58c830.48$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.797466.2%49 W · 25 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x917c…66f2backed Yes45c700$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No60c651.67$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.5111359.3%67 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c2a…6f46backed Yes43c625.18$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bc…2450backed Yes50c595.14$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.14333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aba…c083backed Yes45c553.63$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.6313338.3%51 W · 82 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+66.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb123…e6f2backed No52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d8…0cf5backed Yes42c499.99$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.991668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+59.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Yes42c499.98$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.991258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x96be…9947backed Yes44c482.37$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.07425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6147…d34ebacked Yes45c469.15$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.152540%10 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2af…28c3backed Yes44c400.49$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.31717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes42c400$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c381.79$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.2515148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes42c354.05$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.812138.1%8 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+34.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No59c353.72$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.191546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes40c342.68$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.61650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf1b…e88cbacked Yes42c331.26$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+140.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes41c319.72$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+33.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…c50ebacked Yes42c300$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1741100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed Yes42c300$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.81442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes41c272.5$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.035330.2%16 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes42c234.68$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.152839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x344f…413bbacked Yes45c222.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.31520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes42c209.98$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.743850%19 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d41…a0bfbacked Yes43c201.06$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.06450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No59c201$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.53650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed Yes37c200$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1276523.1%15 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11219931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb86e…8cfdbacked Yes42c199.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.991070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+41.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes43c182.11$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.2314024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes40c181.64$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.177525.3%19 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x724d…8deabacked Yes42c181.12$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+96%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0856…560dbacked Yes45c181$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfde3…9e2cbacked Yes56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.57333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccc3…f918backed Yes47c176.57$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes47c165.49$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+68.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb87…d3a5backed Yes51c156.71$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.71850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf968…1228backed Yes42c151$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ef2…1644backed Yes42c150$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+140.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c2f…10adbacked Yes45c143$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3aa…bddcbacked No63c140.81$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.24344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed No56c140.57$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.34944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbffb…402dbacked Yes44c139$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2d9…170ebacked Yes43c128$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0682…63e0backed Yes45c127$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x893a…36edbacked Yes49c127$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.77450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No50c121.39$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.912766.7%18 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0748…103bbacked Yes41c120$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.551827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6302…e8e3backed Yes44c119.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35ec…6c90backed Yes42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.05425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7c…d9b6backed Yes44c114.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.09333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid-23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9e…0db0backed Yes39c111.95$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.411546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes41c105.16$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4817528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No55c105.14$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.932222.7%5 W · 17 L-5.1wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-55%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes40c96.18$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0410836.1%39 W · 69 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes44c90.9$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.92623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid+11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31d6…3f8dbacked Yes44c90.17$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.17666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+47.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes34c87.54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0830918.1%56 W · 253 L-29.6wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xccad…46ecbacked No59c84.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No58c81.17$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.182740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-25.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf5a3…203abacked Yes44c80$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.61127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick19cpaid-35.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes43c79.6$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.021020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-55.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2452…bcb8backed Yes40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…649dbacked Yes41c70.18$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.555100%5 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+99.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes48c67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff6…f5abbacked No59c65$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eb6…5e8abacked Yes40c63.89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.591050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b5f…ef57backed Yes43c63$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07ed…9f33backed No55c61$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9118…020bbacked No55c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe670…aa55backed Yes41c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+145.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No59c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.23450%17 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4bb6backed No58c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea91…0ae4backed Yes41c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+145.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b3b…f766backed No55c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8782…456ebacked Yes38c58.82$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes35c54$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.320242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4060…c1c4backed Yes51c50.53$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.767135.2%25 W · 46 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+74.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b63…4b44backed Yes41c47.56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.063231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.