Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfec8cb0eaa7b344f95e7a70ac89a925aa13cbec4bed2e7521f515b18d44e658
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,993 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 40c | 19,018$7,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,590.15 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7b…8ed8backed Yes | 38c | 17,232$6,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,581.62 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 59c | 8,893$5,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,636.84 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…e6f2backed No | 61c | 7,000$4,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,749.13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…176dbacked Yes | 40c | 6,800$2,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,751.38 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 61c | 6,694$4,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,624.89 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 33c | 2,574$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.09 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 63c | 2,359$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.18 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 1,427$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.52 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 60c | 1,421$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.43 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 41c | 1,199$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.03 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed No | 66c | 1,166$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.88 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…cbd5backed No | 58c | 1,117$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724d…8deabacked No | 66c | 998.12$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +96%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 43c | 956.23$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 35c | 916.25$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.69 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 624.18$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.06 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bc…2450backed Yes | 34c | 595.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 35c | 578.68$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.88 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 68c | 459.87$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.21 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…0cf5backed Yes | 41c | 458.86$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.31 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe59f…2c73backed Yes | 44c | 452.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96be…9947backed Yes | 44c | 375$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 41c | 347.76$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde3…9e2cbacked Yes | 33c | 306.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 68c | 295.55$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.13 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 62c | 284.56$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 59c | 281.9$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.58 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked Yes | 39c | 251.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.93 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x344f…413bbacked Yes | 41c | 243.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed No | 62c | 240$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdad…6162backed Yes | 43c | 235.65$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 62c | 226$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.6 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…28c3backed Yes | 41c | 219.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 38c | 201.74$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 58c | 191.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe58…17a5backed Yes | 46c | 178$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 64c | 175$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…7125backed Yes | 43c | 157$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 32c | 155.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 154.74$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ab…dea1backed Yes | 38c | 153$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 42c | 151.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked No | 58c | 148.25$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6443…f329backed Yes | 44c | 148$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d41…a0bfbacked Yes | 35c | 144.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cef…91f2backed Yes | 39c | 144$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 32c | 142.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 46c | 141.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 38c | 140.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed No | 72c | 138.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…a806backed Yes | 44c | 135$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186e…d4e7backed Yes | 42c | 131$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf96a…9bb8backed Yes | 44c | 129$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 126.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecf…adb6backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x816c…deefbacked Yes | 42c | 125$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +178.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 31c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6302…e8e3backed Yes | 37c | 119.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 59c | 113.84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 38c | 108.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 102.96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…717ebacked Yes | 39c | 102.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…90e5backed Yes | 42c | 94.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes | 32c | 93.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…79a1backed No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 64c | 77.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7688…ff46backed Yes | 45c | 74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b1…97b1backed No | 57c | 73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked No | 57c | 70.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c8…7e80backed Yes | 29c | 70.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 61c | 67.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c4…a5c5backed No | 62c | 67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…ef57backed Yes | 35c | 66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6083…d92dbacked No | 56c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fc…2065backed No | 57c | 64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3b…f5d4backed No | 62c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb6…5e8abacked Yes | 33c | 60.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…9aecbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88eb…28f6backed No | 56c | 57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3641…ab8ebacked No | 56c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf1…ddf0backed No | 58c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 63c | 53.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…d3aebacked No | 59c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe754…f9a4backed No | 62c | 52.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…6437backed Yes | 37c | 51.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a3…b269backed No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…8f89backed No | 58c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…0af3backed No | 58c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 35c | 45.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…6f7abacked No | 62c | 45.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6506…c751backed No | 58c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in February?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in February?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in February?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in February?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in February?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.1% in February?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.