TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,993

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,993 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes40c19,018$7,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,590.1522433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f7b…8ed8backed Yes38c17,232$6,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,581.622334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No59c8,893$5,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,636.847122.5%16 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb123…e6f2backed No61c7,000$4,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,749.131225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c3e…176dbacked Yes40c6,800$2,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,751.383426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed No61c6,694$4,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,624.898632.6%28 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes33c2,574$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.098636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No63c2,359$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.1823330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes37c1,427$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.5214325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No60c1,421$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.4311359.3%67 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes41c1,199$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.03677.5%5 W · 62 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed No66c1,166$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.881822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd93e…cbd5backed No58c1,117$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.26944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x724d…8deabacked No66c998.12$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.822100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+96%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes43c956.23$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4127030%21 W · 49 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes35c916.25$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.6912820.3%26 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No61c624.18$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.067466.2%49 W · 25 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe2bc…2450backed Yes34c595.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes35c578.68$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.882524%6 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-39.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No68c459.87$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.211764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55d8…0cf5backed Yes41c458.86$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.311668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+59.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe59f…2c73backed Yes44c452.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96be…9947backed Yes44c375$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes41c347.76$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfde3…9e2cbacked Yes33c306.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1052138.1%8 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+34.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No68c295.55$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.132766.7%18 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No62c284.56$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1073850%19 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No59c281.9$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.582934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6147…d34ebacked Yes39c251.39$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.932540%10 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x344f…413bbacked Yes41c243.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed No62c240$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdad…6162backed Yes43c235.65$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No62c226$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.612049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2af…28c3backed Yes41c219.99$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.151717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes38c201.74$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.715330.2%16 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7019931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No58c191.99$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe58…17a5backed Yes46c178$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked No64c175$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+33.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa77c…7125backed Yes43c157$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed Yes32c155.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c154.74$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1115148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6ab…dea1backed Yes38c153$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes42c151.89$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8814024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1a…6bccbacked No58c148.25$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.737525.3%19 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6443…f329backed Yes44c148$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d41…a0bfbacked Yes35c144.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cef…91f2backed Yes39c144$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes32c142.97$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.75540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes46c141.64$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.551020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-55.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes38c140.73$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.362839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed No72c138.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.15560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+33%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x950a…a806backed Yes44c135$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x186e…d4e7backed Yes42c131$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf96a…9bb8backed Yes44c129$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes37c126.78$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5117528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfecf…adb6backed Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x816c…deefbacked Yes42c125$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9e…0db0backed Yes36c120$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.251546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes41c120$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+178.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0748…103bbacked Yes31c120$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.651827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6302…e8e3backed Yes37c119.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed No59c113.84$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.84944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes38c108.83$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.462138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No61c102.96$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.182222.7%5 W · 17 L-5.1wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-55%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x497b…717ebacked Yes39c102.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530918.1%56 W · 253 L-29.6wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366523.1%15 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6468…90e5backed Yes42c94.31$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes32c93.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a9…79a1backed No59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1236…78bebacked Yes41c80$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.81513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-81.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3aa…bddcbacked No64c77.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.64344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7688…ff46backed Yes45c74$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39b1…97b1backed No57c73$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked No57c70.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.523138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67c8…7e80backed Yes29c70.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7593…e677backed No61c67.31$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+68.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4c4…a5c5backed No62c67$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b5f…ef57backed Yes35c66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6083…d92dbacked No56c65$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6fc…2065backed No57c64$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d3b…f5d4backed No62c61$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb6…5e8abacked Yes33c60.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.091050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92b5…9aecbacked No60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88eb…28f6backed No56c57$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3641…ab8ebacked No56c56$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacf1…ddf0backed No58c54$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed No63c53.08$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.644100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x681b…d3aebacked No59c53$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe754…f9a4backed No62c52.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d85…6437backed Yes37c51.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11a3…b269backed No61c49.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.18560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0735…8f89backed No58c47$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdddc…0af3backed No58c47$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes35c45.76$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.091618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb9…6f7abacked No62c45.33$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes31c45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6506…c751backed No58c44$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.