Movies · resolved market
Will Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2108be17be947ae1e60fc67281d2d7ce38d0d9a82844e93f74c923e92550cfa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 29c | 1,081$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.61 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf99e…9fcbbacked Yes | 35c | 999.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed No | 70c | 994$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.18 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed Yes | 29c | 954$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.52 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes | 24c | 763$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.07 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed No | 71c | 705$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.86 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 71c | 703$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.57 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked No | 74c | 644$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…af26backed No | 77c | 607$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.65 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…50f8backed No | 71c | 605$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.66 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed Yes | 30c | 599$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed No | 71c | 578$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.35 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed No | 65c | 530.77$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.77 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 29c | 500$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 29c | 441$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.77 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f0…f05fbacked Yes | 24c | 426$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 23c | 411.16$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.51 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed No | 71c | 405$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.32 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 28c | 404.46$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.25 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed No | 77c | 403$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed Yes | 24c | 388$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 76c | 383$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.39 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed Yes | 23c | 360$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed No | 77c | 360$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 23c | 349$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaf…4bd2backed Yes | 23c | 347$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…fd2cbacked Yes | 23c | 327$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…d3aabacked No | 71c | 318$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.17 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 77c | 315$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.03 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed No | 77c | 303$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.78 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 61c | 300$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d950backed No | 77c | 281$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 29c | 264$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…26fdbacked No | 77c | 257$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…dd15backed Yes | 23c | 257$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…f00ebacked Yes | 30c | 239$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 24c | 238$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc03…cd5cbacked No | 76c | 238$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…15d0backed Yes | 26c | 220.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 24c | 218$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 23c | 203.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…a23bbacked No | 77c | 193$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 68c | 184.24$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 29c | 164$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…1272backed Yes | 30c | 156$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 20c | 150.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 71c | 146.73$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 65c | 145$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…3778backed Yes | 24c | 140$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85dc…7ebfbacked No | 74c | 134.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 131.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b2…ea4ebacked No | 77c | 112$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…f3dcbacked No | 70c | 97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked No | 64c | 77.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 73.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2355…c508backed Yes | 27c | 73.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 71.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 15c | 71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 27c | 70.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 18c | 67.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…2cdbbacked Yes | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 61.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43a9…faebbacked No | 73c | 59.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 34c | 58.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked No | 71c | 58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 25c | 52.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 50.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d2…2117backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 31c | 45.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6c…5ab5backed No | 63c | 39.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 35c | 39.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 77c | 38.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed No | 77c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 78c | 34.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 27.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 77cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…3d47backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…6663backed No | 75c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Paul Mescal (Hamnet) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.