TailMyPicks
Market

Movies · resolved market

Will Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,973
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,169

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,973 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3f3b…1d77backed No58c1,834$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.416434.4%22 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No11c1,454$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.945311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3302…5397backed Yes51c981.32$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1970…398dbacked Yes39c949.99$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.994918.4%9 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5884…3191backed No61c885$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.852835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-38.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No54c790.47$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.573754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03b2…567cbacked No61c710$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.13056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28d6…f54ebacked Yes38c668$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.161030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-45.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b90…8cdcbacked Yes41c610.98$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.98714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-65.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71d2…e109backed Yes39c603$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.833253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes41c583.01$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.528528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No57c580.13$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.4713040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed No62c522$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.643438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12c2…aa71backed Yes38c517$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.542835.7%10 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-38.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x07f7…5513backed Yes52c459.09$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.69742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29a9…d4f7backed Yes39c410$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.11650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02ee…5adebacked Yes38c405$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.12343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x094a…e4a9backed No58c399.99$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2323240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb04e…d4aabacked No54c367.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005414.8%8 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick15cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No57c363$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.8829926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No59c354.86$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.9724634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8151…7259backed No61c337$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.57520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd0e…bbffbacked Yes45c337$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.28520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-55.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes45c335.93$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.935957.6%34 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed No62c309$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.582941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aca…cad6backed No62c304$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.482646.2%12 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes38c304$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.483655.6%20 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdeac…95c6backed Yes39c300$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1832458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked No62c294$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.282352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No58c282$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.5826641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed No61c261$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.214542.2%19 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed Yes39c261$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.213641.7%15 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes41c255.71$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.011050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6452…30a1backed Yes41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.91346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3321…fefbbacked Yes41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.9650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06a…1dd1backed Yes42c240.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.711127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f83…7bf4backed Yes42c240.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.571060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.11968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+52.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x54a7…ae55backed Yes42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.12133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e2b…0f57backed Yes43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.563119.4%6 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes42c225$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.772634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7d…5bc1backed No62c208$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.962466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+37.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0845…c4edbacked No49c201$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.492832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6213130.5%40 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No50c190$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9523041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No56c182.6$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3887033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6d64…8e5ebacked Yes37c174.53$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.07540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf40b…7181backed No62c166$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.923432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked Yes39c164$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.042737%10 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed Yes43c153.48$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.765324.5%13 W · 40 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No9c150$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed No62c146$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.523751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No58c138.1$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.123130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed No55c136.79$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.24616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-77.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f55…580cbacked Yes40c124.39$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.39850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb338…1ff0backed Yes39c118$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.983240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x270e…2930backed Yes45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.114829.2%14 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dc7…ad5bbacked Yes55c109.09$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.09771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac8c…415cbacked No55c109$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.263745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd416…d9e2backed Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595044%22 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No38c94.25$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1313650%68 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x895d…3778backed Yes40c92$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.25523.6%13 W · 42 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+138.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked No59c84.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.456729.9%20 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-44%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3b9…66acbacked No60c84.3$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…649cbacked No61c81.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501827.8%5 W · 13 L-5.1wins-0.28per pick56cpaid-62.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No52c80$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5734651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes40c76.06$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.371,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d75…78b9backed Yes41c73.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.172979.3%23 W · 6 L+5.9wins+0.20per pick59cpaid+36.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0192…ba59backed Yes41c73.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.172744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No53c72.8$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6914337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes44c64.84$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.082020%4 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb13b…0e2bbacked Yes42c63.03$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.651457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+30.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No51c62.76$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.057136.6%26 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f07…2036backed Yes36c62.32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.881827.8%5 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No49c61.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.71,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa6ed…5edebacked Yes43c58.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.14933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-43.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1747…3b00backed Yes41c56.51$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.563855.3%21 W · 17 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+27.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa400…ec34backed Yes38c55$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.12147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No56c51.36$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5520668.9%142 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3048236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3ad…6866backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed No57c45$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.656152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1b9…e6d3backed No48c44.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.484358.1%25 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7f7…e73bbacked Yes47c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.22030%6 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b13…3d47backed Yes38c39.26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.16650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x408e…e168backed Yes51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.22580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+79.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d85…9ed0backed Yes40c37.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.663363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+21.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4b1d…a1e3backed Yes41c37.65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.211442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No44c37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3620850%104 W · 104 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6368…d45ebacked Yes41c36.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.592556%14 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9a…b04fbacked No55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.83016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-60.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x72a9…ce37backed Yes45c34.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.99977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick65cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c15…45a0backed Yes43c33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.813534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe4f…e58cbacked Yes48c31.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.562737%10 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-36.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.813851.4%71 W · 67 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2387…abe1backed No58c29.81$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.232330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-45.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3813…8bf1backed No61c29.22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f0f…110ebacked Yes42c29.21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5927…672bbacked Yes52c28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.493366.7%22 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d0f…af26backed No62c27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.741533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-52.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.