Movies · resolved market
Will Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14d8e15dbf3512a4b51c6e31ce76059e1bbff6518ecc32421faa0154afe65eac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes | 24c | 600$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 78c | 426$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.89 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 21c | 399.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 79c | 363.36$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1c…53f2backed Yes | 19c | 335.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…22b1backed Yes | 24c | 227.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e1…99febacked Yes | 20c | 202.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 67c | 187.67$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ba…9236backed Yes | 23c | 177.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…e4a9backed No | 79c | 176.1$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…a943backed Yes | 59c | 169.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…b07bbacked No | 80c | 162.94$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 20c | 159.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 22c | 134$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…273fbacked Yes | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafa…9f46backed Yes | 24c | 124.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…4fa9backed Yes | 16c | 116$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 73c | 114$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f78…57f1backed Yes | 16c | 113$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 75c | 98.01$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…b92cbacked Yes | 18c | 98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a00…c3cbbacked Yes | 21c | 97.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d64…8e5ebacked Yes | 28c | 87.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b5…5122backed Yes | 25c | 81.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26f3…025ebacked Yes | 16c | 73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255b…b5f8backed Yes | 18c | 73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7c…456fbacked Yes | 16c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…d45ebacked Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 77c | 69.27$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc402…bd76backed Yes | 16c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17fe…f2ebbacked Yes | 24c | 63.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 77c | 63.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…092ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…672bbacked No | 75c | 49.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf81…e590backed Yes | 26c | 48.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 76c | 45.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe22…66b3backed Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…9ed0backed No | 78c | 32.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Paul Mescal (Hamnet) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.