Movies · resolved market
Will Tramell Tillman (Severance) win Best Supporting Actor – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1441f52900f56a6702f56e7c6287790ff1dd114e480f9f4ec8b9c56e719d7c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadc9…5856backed No | 76c | 709$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.16 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…ebedbacked Yes | 24c | 669$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.56 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed No | 74c | 640$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.4 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed Yes | 26c | 388$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed No | 74c | 334$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…d9c1backed Yes | 26c | 312$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 11c | 310$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 77c | 305$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed Yes | 26c | 292$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed Yes | 26c | 292$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 17c | 268$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…4003backed Yes | 37c | 265$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked No | 79c | 242$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes | 21c | 242$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…50f8backed Yes | 24c | 222$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc4…4a8ebacked Yes | 17c | 219$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…12f8backed No | 74c | 204$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 11c | 203$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 75c | 193$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 19c | 180$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 16c | 160.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9220…d348backed Yes | 24c | 156$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed No | 60c | 153$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked Yes | 19c | 122$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 116.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed Yes | 14c | 109.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df5…e945backed Yes | 20c | 108.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked No | 76c | 101$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 17c | 89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca36…bb1dbacked No | 76c | 81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 21c | 77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed No | 74c | 66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 79c | 59.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 23c | 50.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 73c | 28.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…d9c7backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tramell Tillman (Severance) win Best Supporting Actor – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will Jason Isaacs (The White Lotus) win Best Supporting Actor – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Owen Cooper (Adolescence) win Best Supporting Actor – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will Walton Goggins (The White Lotus) win Best Supporting Actor – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.