Movies · resolved market
Will Jean Smart (Hacks) win Best Actress – Television Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d28ed21ccd966900550848df2d9a1fe6065bb443c1463040c0eac027e22609d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 5c | 1,014$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…d4aabacked No | 11c | 1,002$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed No | 9c | 630$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adfbbacked No | 12c | 503.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…abdfbacked No | 24c | 472.67$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…3274backed No | 12c | 430$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed No | 10c | 420$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…2411backed No | 6c | 406.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…f3dcbacked No | 10c | 353$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 13c | 330.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 11c | 319.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked No | 12c | 317$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 11c | 310.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 12c | 308.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…8be4backed No | 9c | 302$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed No | 10c | 294$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 9c | 205$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 20c | 180.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed No | 10c | 171$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 11c | 161$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked No | 13c | 155$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed No | 10c | 111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 11c | 107.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 13c | 97.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 63c | 97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 32c | 45.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jean Smart (Hacks) win Best Actress – Television Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will Ayo Edebiri (The Bear) win Best Actress – Television Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Jenna Ortega (Wednesday) win Best Actress – Television Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Kristen Bell (Nobody Wants This) win Best Actress – Television Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.