World Politics · resolved market
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfae33963a91fbf1a69758c9e9b1bbbe2f4752cb186722b4a56f03452dfc2c68e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x59d7…0217backed Yes | 11c | 1,097$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 11c | 991$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +142%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed Yes | 11c | 989$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed Yes | 11c | 960$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 11c | 845$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.05 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…35bebacked Yes | 11c | 694$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +261.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 11c | 687$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.43 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 10c | 661.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.9 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…26fdbacked Yes | 11c | 647$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +211.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 18c | 565$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed Yes | 11c | 513$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +68%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2111…667fbacked Yes | 12c | 441$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 11c | 431$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.59 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 27c | 417.54$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.61 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed Yes | 11c | 378$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 11c | 372$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…ce56backed Yes | 11c | 321$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +268.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 75c | 300$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…55d9backed Yes | 11c | 298$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 37c | 280.44$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.65 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked Yes | 11c | 239$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 11c | 211$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.79 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +76%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 26c | 197.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.11 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 11c | 194$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec1…29dcbacked Yes | 32c | 179.25$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed Yes | 11c | 137$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +69%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 71c | 130.83$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 120.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.02 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 17c | 115.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.35 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 100.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 95.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed Yes | 11c | 91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +151.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…b4a9backed Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 75.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked No | 77c | 45.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…2c98backed Yes | 58c | 24.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Yes | 75c | 24.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…eed0backed Yes | 75c | 24.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…de16backed Yes | 74c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 14% and 16% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 20% and 22% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win less than 12% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win more than 22% of votes in the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.