World Politics · resolved market
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win less than 12% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdef3c7b58b591f2f8a8777bf48fcb7bcc51cf411e96c1244cd08871e355bebba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,284$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.82 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 15c | 3,140$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.44 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 72c | 1,024$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.12 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 13c | 897$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 11c | 859$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…ad61backed Yes | 11c | 826$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…2f7bbacked Yes | 13c | 805$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…d9c1backed Yes | 11c | 711$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed Yes | 11c | 683$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes | 13c | 657.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4974backed Yes | 12c | 617$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes | 12c | 616$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 67c | 611.3$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.99 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…2cf4backed Yes | 10c | 569$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed Yes | 12c | 548$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…0451backed Yes | 13c | 546$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked Yes | 11c | 543$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed Yes | 11c | 521$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 12c | 472$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes | 11c | 448$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 9c | 434.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…e858backed Yes | 11c | 401$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 29c | 400$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.47 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…6533backed Yes | 12c | 384$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 4c | 344.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 12c | 341$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8b…78e9backed Yes | 14c | 322.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 10c | 313$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…8be4backed Yes | 12c | 310$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +224.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cb…ac3dbacked Yes | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…7f3abacked Yes | 7c | 299.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes | 11c | 276$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed Yes | 11c | 271$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…d3aabacked Yes | 12c | 265$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 74c | 257.97$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 10c | 236.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 24c | 222.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…27fdbacked Yes | 13c | 218.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 65c | 210.34$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.44 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked No | 75c | 187.87$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 172.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec1…29dcbacked Yes | 15c | 162.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbb…a13bbacked No | 74c | 155.61$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe621…576abacked Yes | 22c | 152.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 12c | 150.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…0e27backed Yes | 14c | 136.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…b7fdbacked Yes | 15c | 134.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 11c | 133$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1409…ffb3backed Yes | 13c | 130.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61dc…28dfbacked Yes | 14c | 123.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes | 10c | 122$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed Yes | 13c | 116$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…f17bbacked Yes | 15c | 88.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed Yes | 12c | 87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…5662backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 25c | 78.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 25c | 57.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Yes | 65c | 42.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…eed0backed Yes | 65c | 42.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Yes | 65c | 37.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…de16backed Yes | 65c | 28.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7be3…afa3backed Yes | 69c | 28.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab20…d9e2backed Yes | 65c | 21.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…4d2cbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 78c | 19.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win less than 12% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?Yes won
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 14% and 16% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 20% and 22% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win more than 22% of votes in the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.