NFL · resolved market
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe528f5bfd8edcffea20a5378a3da3ae2be5254c5bded7b5dbf48c0b294c1f0b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5099…7d87backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed No | 2c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 54 | 9.3%5 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed No | 51c | 541$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 49c | 531$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed No | 51c | 510$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 49c | 469$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Yes | 63c | 439.47$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.19 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked Yes | 49c | 404$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 18c | 300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked No | 51c | 291$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 28c | 163.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 49c | 152$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed No | 51c | 141$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 52c | 44.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked No | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed No | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf09c…e16bbacked Yes | 66c | 30.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c19…8661backed No | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 212 | 27.8%59 W · 153 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Jacksonville Jaguars be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?this page
- Will the Jacksonville Jaguars be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?No won
- Will the Jacksonville Jaguars be eliminated in the Divisional Round?No won
- Will the Jacksonville Jaguars be eliminated in the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.