Movies · resolved market
Will "Hamnet" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x354876b16b0e2c35b6b3f154d16455b459c1d39984dbedab0877b7fc0c2e85bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,439 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 75c | 1,724$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.26 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 20c | 1,319$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.89 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed Yes | 77c | 966$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -59%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…35e5backed No | 11c | 939.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes | 76c | 801$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked Yes | 75c | 755$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.75 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 76c | 748$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 76c | 730$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.2 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked No | 25c | 656$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e0…a63bbacked Yes | 76c | 654$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed No | 25c | 649$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed No | 24c | 636$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.64 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…b0a3backed No | 5c | 600.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 76c | 580$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 20c | 578.15$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.09 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked No | 24c | 572$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd71f…fe71backed No | 16c | 558$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked No | 13c | 552$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…7914backed Yes | 75c | 550$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked No | 24c | 550$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed No | 23c | 531$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.13 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x541a…1740backed No | 24c | 510$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 9c | 492.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…4d9abacked No | 16c | 486$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 14c | 459.96$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked No | 11c | 455.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 10c | 455.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d03…ef8ebacked No | 24c | 446$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed Yes | 76c | 446$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked No | 25c | 444$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 7c | 442.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 76c | 430$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed No | 24c | 430$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 75c | 421$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.25 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked No | 24c | 405$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 24c | 377$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed No | 23c | 360$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…814dbacked No | 11c | 352$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed No | 13c | 300.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed No | 13c | 296$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked No | 24c | 292$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 11c | 290.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…9fa3backed No | 18c | 287$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed No | 15c | 278$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 76c | 276$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.33per pick | 38cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…7a3fbacked No | 15c | 275$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 269.66$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked No | 15c | 264$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…16b6backed No | 14c | 261.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…85edbacked No | 48c | 260$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 12c | 256.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e08…7e2ebacked No | 13c | 243$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 78c | 236$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 213.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed No | 22c | 211$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…93dbbacked No | 18c | 210$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…e68dbacked No | 24c | 196$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8841…c56cbacked No | 5c | 184.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 12c | 182.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 9c | 171.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 169$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed No | 21c | 165.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 17c | 161.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc94…efd5backed No | 13c | 157$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 47c | 154.72$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed Yes | 56c | 150.47$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d9…8608backed No | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad4…83b8backed No | 13c | 148.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed No | 21c | 140$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…63c7backed Yes | 55c | 135.73$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes | 76c | 132$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed No | 19c | 132$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 10c | 125.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 45c | 121$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 77c | 116.39$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x043c…3cf8backed No | 14c | 111.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…23bebacked No | 17c | 111.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 53c | 107.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 53c | 107.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…63f2backed No | 10c | 107$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…caf4backed No | 13c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…2debbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b3…55cfbacked Yes | 75c | 99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed No | 24c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed No | 24c | 82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4433…11b2backed No | 18c | 78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked No | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked No | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22fa…8135backed No | 27c | 74.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98aa…fcb3backed Yes | 53c | 73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 21c | 72.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…9ed1backed No | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Hamnet" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?this page
- Will "Hamnet" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Hamnet" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Hamnet" win no awards at the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.