Movies · resolved market
Will John Stirling die in Bridgerton: Season 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe65a493c4169d4a6355be2826c5dd963f3f9a2eceaa46aa6e03779cc9ac766a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7cdc…5759backed No | 12c | 970.78$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 12c | 660.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.63 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed No | 16c | 599$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked No | 14c | 587$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked No | 11c | 558$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked No | 16c | 475$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…2d8abacked No | 15c | 462$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…f0b5backed No | 12c | 421$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed No | 12c | 395$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked No | 12c | 355$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked No | 27c | 351$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…d42ebacked Yes | 73c | 351$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.77 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed No | 9c | 342$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 16c | 332$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 16c | 263$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 12c | 194$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 16c | 192$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…5d9ebacked No | 16c | 173$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…7372backed No | 12c | 166$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 11c | 153$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed No | 12c | 141$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed No | 12c | 121$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 37c | 114.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…a127backed No | 16c | 114$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 11c | 109.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29d…7959backed No | 12c | 86.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 18c | 84.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 49c | 77.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed Yes | 80c | 75.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4d…5ff1backed Yes | 57c | 23.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +171.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…6431backed Yes | 48c | 21.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6216backed Yes | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will John Stirling die in Bridgerton: Season 4?this page
- Will Araminta Gun die in Bridgerton: Season 4?No won
- Will King George III die in Bridgerton: Season 4?No won
- Will Lady Danbury die in Bridgerton: Season 4?No won
- Will Marcus Anderson die in Bridgerton: Season 4?No won
- Will Penelope Bridgerton die in Bridgerton: Season 4?No won
- Will Posy Li die in Bridgerton: Season 4?No won
- Will Queen Charlotte die in Bridgerton: Season 4?No won
- Will Rosamund Li die in Bridgerton: Season 4?No won
- Will Violet Bridgerton die in Bridgerton: Season 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.