Movies · resolved market
Will Queen Charlotte die in Bridgerton: Season 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e06244bac9a796589f2d3defc195851531753681fcf49224156735a623700b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafb8…f956backed No | 76c | 1,141$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.7 | 18 | 100%18 W · 0 L | +6.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a33…a5f7backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes | 19c | 232.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…4890backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 123$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc8…0d99backed Yes | 15c | 116.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 62cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 87.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…8fedbacked Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +6.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Queen Charlotte die in Bridgerton: Season 4?this page
- Will Araminta Gun die in Bridgerton: Season 4?No won
- Will John Stirling die in Bridgerton: Season 4?Yes won
- Will King George III die in Bridgerton: Season 4?No won
- Will Lady Danbury die in Bridgerton: Season 4?No won
- Will Marcus Anderson die in Bridgerton: Season 4?No won
- Will Penelope Bridgerton die in Bridgerton: Season 4?No won
- Will Posy Li die in Bridgerton: Season 4?No won
- Will Rosamund Li die in Bridgerton: Season 4?No won
- Will Violet Bridgerton die in Bridgerton: Season 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.