Music · resolved market
Will 'Nothing's About To Happen To Me' - Mitski debut week album sales be less than 20k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf72deba8f907f15b30a2d815096b0722349c32de1bbb8490979619ccc12823da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,823 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaae6…3d05backed Yes | 11c | 708$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 17c | 564.7$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 171.79$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.61 | 392 | 16.1%63 W · 329 L | -44.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…0977backed Yes | 57c | 132.52$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 11c | 127$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x868a…889dbacked Yes | 38c | 119$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c91…c9c9backed Yes | 38c | 116$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92a…2c4fbacked Yes | 38c | 115$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4854…8dbebacked Yes | 38c | 114$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e0…050fbacked Yes | 38c | 111$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…2d78backed Yes | 38c | 111$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b11…532bbacked Yes | 38c | 109$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077f…6e02backed Yes | 38c | 109$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2f…b3a0backed Yes | 38c | 109$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…0ebbbacked Yes | 38c | 107$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e2…6adfbacked No | 62c | 105$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…b7e1backed No | 62c | 104$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5d…3e08backed No | 62c | 104$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1990…cce0backed No | 62c | 103$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…079ebacked No | 62c | 103$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…86cbbacked No | 62c | 102$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…4345backed No | 62c | 102$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…cb4fbacked No | 62c | 102$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…74aabacked No | 62c | 102$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7b…83c8backed No | 62c | 101$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…d0e9backed No | 62c | 101$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…f6c2backed Yes | 38c | 101$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b4…c1c7backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…46a8backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…2a38backed No | 62c | 99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4002…47bdbacked Yes | 38c | 98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9f…525cbacked Yes | 38c | 98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4183…b2e6backed Yes | 38c | 98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52bc…91e4backed No | 62c | 97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…a2b0backed No | 62c | 97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…dafebacked Yes | 38c | 96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd3…441abacked Yes | 38c | 96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0768…d249backed No | 62c | 96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a60backed No | 62c | 95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd772…4c82backed Yes | 38c | 94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167f…0f39backed Yes | 38c | 94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf773…4decbacked Yes | 38c | 94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…223dbacked Yes | 38c | 94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6040…16c2backed Yes | 38c | 94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4909…9994backed Yes | 38c | 93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…1f8ebacked No | 62c | 93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8899…a121backed No | 62c | 93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ad…d115backed No | 62c | 92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…51b0backed No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…3494backed No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…0982backed No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8011…00e8backed No | 62c | 58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637c…f802backed No | 62c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 29c | 41.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Nothing's About To Happen To Me' - Mitski debut week album sales be less than 20k?this page
- Will 'Nothing's About To Happen To Me' - Mitski debut week album sales be at least 40k?No won
- Will 'Nothing's About To Happen To Me' - Mitski debut week album sales be between 20k and 25k?No won
- Will 'Nothing's About To Happen To Me' - Mitski debut week album sales be between 30k and 35k?No won
- Will 'Nothing's About To Happen To Me' - Mitski debut week album sales be between 35k and 40k?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.