Music · resolved market
Will 'Nothing's About To Happen To Me' - Mitski debut week album sales be at least 40k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe24529f53cbfe6a30582879f9def30f6197877668992e3304febf253f1bcd322
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,407 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd07…0058backed No | 35c | 975$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 65c | 864$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 78c | 597.39$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.4 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 19c | 500$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 20c | 120$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 18c | 111.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 64c | 107.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f51…c63cbacked Yes | 65c | 102$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 77c | 101.82$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1722backed No | 37c | 83.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked No | 45c | 61.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 60c | 54.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 39.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 72c | 30.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 53c | 19.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Nothing's About To Happen To Me' - Mitski debut week album sales be at least 40k?this page
- Will 'Nothing's About To Happen To Me' - Mitski debut week album sales be between 20k and 25k?No won
- Will 'Nothing's About To Happen To Me' - Mitski debut week album sales be between 30k and 35k?No won
- Will 'Nothing's About To Happen To Me' - Mitski debut week album sales be between 35k and 40k?Yes won
- Will 'Nothing's About To Happen To Me' - Mitski debut week album sales be less than 20k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.