Weather · resolved market
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdee5bf0f6097120a1aa75d04f1869d0ae58a478305d3933e70b39b2cc7ba7604
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 16c | 1,274$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed Yes | 15c | 1,248$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 18c | 1,236$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.48 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 2c | 1,167$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes | 16c | 1,092$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed No | 71c | 1,069$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked Yes | 16c | 1,015$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…70a2backed Yes | 16c | 926$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes | 21c | 820$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…ed0cbacked Yes | 19c | 806$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 19c | 760$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.4 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 17c | 754$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.18 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked Yes | 29c | 747$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.39 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 12c | 699.93$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…bdf1backed No | 79c | 654$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes | 16c | 573$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.83 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 19c | 564$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 22c | 558.28$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 18c | 552$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked Yes | 16c | 494$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 65c | 488$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.26 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 35c | 488$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.26 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked Yes | 29c | 486$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked No | 71c | 486$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.94 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…3c25backed Yes | 35c | 484$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked No | 65c | 484$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…44a9backed Yes | 16c | 467$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…297bbacked Yes | 17c | 458$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed Yes | 13c | 451.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes | 37c | 413$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.81 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 63c | 413$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.81 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a48…a0b5backed No | 76c | 411.44$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed Yes | 28c | 391$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed No | 72c | 391$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0367…1c15backed Yes | 13c | 390$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbe…04b4backed Yes | 19c | 388$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 15c | 363.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 10c | 354$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…dce5backed Yes | 15c | 350$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 28c | 330$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 37c | 326.01$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.23 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 16c | 316$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76fd…e8c4backed Yes | 16c | 297$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c03ebacked Yes | 15c | 289$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…9896backed Yes | 16c | 279$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed No | 72c | 255$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…c7b9backed Yes | 28c | 255$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed Yes | 29c | 224$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed Yes | 16c | 223$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 66c | 197.41$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.47 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f51…c63cbacked Yes | 17c | 183$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…7c15backed Yes | 17c | 172.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked No | 79c | 166$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed Yes | 16c | 165$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 153.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec4…ce94backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x541a…1740backed Yes | 10c | 148$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 16c | 132.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…83b7backed Yes | 15c | 130.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…c79dbacked Yes | 19c | 129.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 17c | 116.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…eebfbacked Yes | 11c | 102.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes | 16c | 102$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…4a8dbacked Yes | 21c | 100.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked Yes | 29c | 98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2d…2debbacked Yes | 17c | 96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 76c | 80.2$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed Yes | 16c | 69.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 57.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 23c | 53.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdf…af9ebacked No | 62c | 39.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 58c | 33.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed No | 61c | 21.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?this page
- Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in February?Yes won
- Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.