World Politics · resolved market
Labour leadership election scheduled by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x006087c5cae7b89aaa80a0c0bc6ca9bcc49ba22e95f5138368551f95491a705e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 10,110$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 2,116$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…002abacked Yes | 9c | 1,435$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 1,214$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 11c | 1,143$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.13 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,113$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x247c…45a8backed Yes | 58c | 519.86$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 8c | 486.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 445.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 359.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 30c | 351.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.4 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 9c | 291.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 20c | 287.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 6c | 282.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 5c | 245.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…9e23backed Yes | 25c | 244.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 24c | 238.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed Yes | 7c | 211$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4250…d9d4backed Yes | 19c | 209.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 59c | 190$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 16c | 187.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes | 14c | 165$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 124.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 15c | 117$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed Yes | 15c | 113$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13e…1223backed No | 64c | 110.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 49c | 104$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 14c | 103.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…1451backed Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 18c | 63.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 67c | 29.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 50c | 23.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 75c | 23.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Labour leadership election scheduled by March 31?this page
- Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31?Yes won
- Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.