World Politics · resolved market
Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ddf5dfc5a2d9027fa9e49bf47911b10fbadb9a38e885775890a450562d09603
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 32c | 1,018$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.21 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 12c | 593.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…002abacked No | 29c | 488.42$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.49 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 78c | 389.93$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.86 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 6c | 331$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed No | 6c | 320.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 76c | 312.18$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.94 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 75c | 260$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 10c | 185$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 68c | 156.14$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 143.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed No | 14c | 130.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 22c | 74.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac2…99bfbacked Yes | 71c | 58.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 77c | 43.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed Yes | 72c | 34.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 21.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026?this page
- Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31?Yes won
- Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?Yes won
- Labour leadership election scheduled by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.