World Politics · resolved market
Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc5014ba5f8135b9b080d7091cfb0c2089e5935a0952e1df23d10d4d83415b32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 73c | 419.48$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.14 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 10c | 402.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 15c | 387.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…002abacked No | 30c | 324.37$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 11c | 162.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…9b13backed No | 9c | 116.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 50c | 101.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…d5b4backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 15c | 68.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 16c | 62.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…7627backed No | 26c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 77c | 23.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264f…cd38backed Yes | 70c | 22.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31?this page
- Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?Yes won
- Labour leadership election scheduled by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.