Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 15-21, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6395cbd98104c532b1a74470f0f0b2e765ca740bbc623d5f04fbf282e6fe3652
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 9c | 2,731$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.58 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,800$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,278$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,273$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,201$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddee…56fdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,152$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…8fdabacked Yes | 5c | 1,026$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14d…916ebacked Yes | 20c | 977.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4751…e334backed Yes | 5c | 940.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e4…8582backed Yes | 7c | 872.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 11c | 790.03$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 6c | 749.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 667.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacfa…2334backed Yes | 17c | 664.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -38%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 6c | 585.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf964…6e97backed Yes | 13c | 524.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5893…618abacked No | 78c | 404.01$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf268…15cabacked Yes | 22c | 320$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…c3cabacked Yes | 21c | 306.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x541d…8f88backed Yes | 13c | 288.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…703cbacked Yes | 23c | 211.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a2…293bbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…e4c9backed Yes | 10c | 149.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 144$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…c56fbacked Yes | 9c | 133$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 11c | 131.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 10c | 108.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0c…562cbacked Yes | 19c | 105.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87a…009bbacked Yes | 15c | 101.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7eb…093ebacked No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 15c | 74.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c81…517dbacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…b068backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b48…35d0backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 15-21, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)?Yes won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 15-21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 22-28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 29-April 4, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 8-14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by April 4, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.