Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec80d091f823b3fc853a3fdb01e3c18500d7e4d1405d54815e41ae54eb719962
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $503,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $489,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $503,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 9c | 57,747$5,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,481.94 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 5c | 35,022$1,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,913.81 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes | 11c | 16,838$1,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,773 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,063$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…8e98backed Yes | 10c | 10,019$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4a…104fbacked Yes | 12c | 6,260$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b75…ad87backed Yes | 11c | 5,752$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,266$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.21 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793b…3afcbacked Yes | 19c | 3,291$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…1b46backed Yes | 9c | 2,856$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 17c | 2,657$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.23 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,609$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 2c | 2,585$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 13c | 2,500$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +22.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…bdc1backed Yes | 13c | 2,497$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.67 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 2,280$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 1,774$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.22 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f20…fdc9backed Yes | 15c | 1,688$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…d074backed Yes | 15c | 1,665$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4757…5eaebacked Yes | 15c | 1,664$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…3b80backed Yes | 15c | 1,655$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 1,643$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.65 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Yes | 23c | 1,638$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.71 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf831…e9b2backed Yes | 14c | 1,603$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1b…5f28backed Yes | 15c | 1,565$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd6…55eebacked Yes | 15c | 1,559$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…748fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,550$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8c…c96cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,480$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecb…7e00backed Yes | 14c | 1,480$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…c856backed Yes | 15c | 1,470$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,453$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.96 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…61e2backed Yes | 15c | 1,452$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a98…bf3bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,450$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0287…122fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,412$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf74f…1ae7backed Yes | 15c | 1,372$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…c8a2backed Yes | 15c | 1,325$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…5fefbacked Yes | 15c | 1,317$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd753…dffdbacked Yes | 15c | 1,314$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 8c | 1,309$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…b88ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,301$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,300$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15fa…430ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,268$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…4eecbacked Yes | 15c | 1,260$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50b…a525backed Yes | 14c | 1,236$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…722fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,219$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x043b…9c47backed Yes | 15c | 1,210$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…6c9fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,207$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…c7aebacked Yes | 22c | 1,067$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.78 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fa…0fbcbacked Yes | 15c | 1,064$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 7c | 1,020$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc94f…6cbcbacked Yes | 15c | 999.59$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 13c | 950.55$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.85 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 849.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 7c | 794$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfa…76a0backed Yes | 4c | 751$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 5c | 739.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…2492backed Yes | 4c | 727$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97b…2961backed Yes | 4c | 525$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…3aebbacked Yes | 5c | 524$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 10c | 465.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…d43fbacked No | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 344.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8db…ddfcbacked Yes | 15c | 335.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…a346backed Yes | 5c | 333$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x603c…ac70backed Yes | 15c | 313.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 281.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…eef4backed Yes | 11c | 182.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes | 18c | 170$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…4bcfbacked No | 79c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…ed7bbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f80…44bebacked Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 101.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…7c35backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | -19.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4111…993cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in December?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in December?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in December?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.