Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b3c79d8bd7addb16b01d7d3be9b79d95005032710e0ba84e49fd7e1086db1df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $290,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $289,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $290,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfcdf…56c9backed Yes | 4c | 36,431$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 5c | 34,201$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.39 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 5c | 20,940$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.47 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b75…ad87backed Yes | 2c | 13,163$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793b…3afcbacked Yes | 8c | 11,908$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes | 6c | 8,869$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.66 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 4c | 3,097$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.27 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +22.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,853$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…bdc1backed Yes | 4c | 2,730$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.17 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533c…4883backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20b…2773backed Yes | 3c | 1,951$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 1c | 1,871$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,663$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,456$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…1b46backed Yes | 4c | 1,400$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,359$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 1,303$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,205$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa619…d33bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,063$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 2c | 991.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 2c | 793$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 486.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…8e98backed Yes | 5c | 416.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 3c | 334.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94f…6cbcbacked Yes | 5c | 190$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in December?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in December?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in December?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.